中国普通外科杂志2026，Vol.35Issue(3)：446-457,12.DOI:10.7659/j.issn.1005-6947.250702
酒精性胰腺炎的全球与中国疾病负担及酒精摄入的因果关联研究
Global and Chinese disease burden of alcoholic pancreatitis and its causal association with alcohol consumption
摘要
Abstract
Background and Aims:Alcohol consumption is a major modifiable risk factor for pancreatitis.However,comprehensive evidence integrating the long-term disease burden of alcoholic pancreatitis and its causal relationship with acute and chronic pancreatitis remains limited.This study aimed to systematically evaluate the temporal trends,disease burden,and potential causal associations of alcoholic pancreatitis globally and in China using the Global Burden of Disease(GBD)2021 database and two-sample Mendelian randomization(MR). Methods:Data on deaths,disability-adjusted life years(DALYs),and corresponding age-standardized rates from 1990 to 2021 were extracted from the GBD 2021 database.Temporal trends were analyzed by sex and age group.Joinpoint regression was used to estimate the average annual percent change(AAPC),and decomposition analysis quantified the contributions of population growth,population aging,and epidemiological changes.A Bayesian age-period-cohort(BAPC)model was applied to project trends through 2040.Additionally,two-sample MR analysis based on publicly available GWAS summary statistics was conducted to assess the causal associations between alcohol consumption and pancreatitis. Results:From 1990 to 2021,the numbers of deaths and DALYs attributable to alcoholic pancreatitis increased steadily both globally and in China,whereas age-standardized mortality and DALY rates declined or remained stable,with lower levels observed in China than the global average.The disease burden was substantially higher in males and older populations.Decomposition analysis indicated that population growth and aging were the primary drivers of the increased burden,while epidemiological changes contributed negatively.Projections suggested a continued slight decline in age-standardized burden,although the absolute burden will remain high.MR analysis demonstrated a robust positive causal association between genetically predicted alcohol consumption and increased risks of both acute and chronic pancreatitis. Conclusion:Alcoholic pancreatitis exhibits a pattern of increasing absolute burden but declining age-standardized burden globally and in China,with marked age and sex disparities.Genetic evidence supports a positive causal relationship between alcohol consumption and pancreatitis risk.Strengthening alcohol control policies and targeted interventions is essential to reduce the long-term health and socioeconomic burden.关键词
胰腺炎,酒精性/饮酒/全球疾病负担/孟德尔随机化分析Key words
Pancreatitis,Alcoholic/Alcohol Drinking/Global Burden of Disease/Mendelian Randomization Analysis分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
郑时旭,涂广平,蒋海博,谢双溪,李志强,余枭..酒精性胰腺炎的全球与中国疾病负担及酒精摄入的因果关联研究[J].中国普通外科杂志,2026,35(3):446-457,12.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目(82472226). （82472226）
