中国水产科学2026，Vol.33Issue(3)：107-116,10.DOI:10.12264/JFSC2025-0264
基于贝叶斯方法的太湖陈氏新银鱼参数评估及决策分析
Bayesian-based parameter estimation and management decision analysis for Chinese icefish(Neosalanx tangkahkeii)in Taihu Lake
摘要
Abstract
Taihu Lake,the third largest freshwater lake in China,has long supported a commercially important Chinese icefish(Neosalanx tangkahkeii)fishery.However,the recovery status of Chinese icefish resources following the fishing ban,as well as future strategies for their sustainable utilization,remains scientifically unassessed.This study integrated Bayesian methods into a surplus production model to conduct uncertainty analyses of Chinese icefish stocks in Taihu Lake using catch and catch-per-unit-effort(CPUE)data.This study projected resource recovery during the fishing ban period and identified optimal harvest strategies for the subsequent stock recovery phase.The results demonstrated the following mean parameter estimates:intrinsic growth rate(r)=0.44(CV=0.28),carrying capacity(K)=11367 t(CV=0.26),and catchability coefficient(q)=8.80×10-6(CV=0.29).All parameters exhibited Gelman-Rubin convergence statistics(R-hat values)below 1.05,indicating excellent model convergence.During the fishing ban period,Chinese icefish biomass approached carrying capacity within four years.Decision analysis indicated that a fishing mortality rate of 0.2 represents the optimal management strategy,achieving approximately 85%-90%of the maximum sustainable yield(MSY)while substantially reducing population risk(SustainableProb=71.3%),thereby balancing yield objectives with long-term sustainability of Chinese icefish resources in Taihu Lake.关键词
陈氏新银鱼/贝叶斯方法/剩余产量模型/资源评估与管理/太湖Key words
Neosalanx tangkahkeii/Bayesian inference/surplus production model/fishery resource assessment and management/Taihu Lake分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
李志鹏,凡迎春,匡箴,徐东坡,任泷..基于贝叶斯方法的太湖陈氏新银鱼参数评估及决策分析[J].中国水产科学,2026,33(3):107-116,10.基金项目
国家重点研发计划项目(2023YFD2400900) （2023YFD2400900）
中国水产科学研究院中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项(2023TD65). （2023TD65）
