灾害学2026，Vol.41Issue(3)：28-38,11.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-811X.2026.03.004
云南农业冰雹灾害风险区划与评估
Risk Zoning and Assessment of Agricultural Hail Disasters in Yunnan:A Case Study of Tobacco-Growing Areas
摘要
Abstract
Using hail data from 2015-2024,30-second resolution digital elevation data,fixed operational site information,based on the analysis of the distribution characteristics of hail activity and nonlinear fitting of to-pography and hail frequency,hail risk zoning in Yunnan's tobacco-growing regions are analyzed by selecting haz-ard factors,sensitivity factors,vulnerability factors,and defense capability factors and the Analytic Hierarchy Pro-cess(AHP),Geographic Information Systems(GIS),and the natural breaks classification method.The results show that,under the combined influence of terrain and synoptic weather patterns,areas with high hail activity in Yunnan Province correspond to the main flue-cured tobacco producing regions.The central and eastern parts of Yunnan experience the most frequent hail events and have the largest flue-cured tobacco planting areas at the same time,along with the highest terrain sensitivity factors.Although hail events in these regions are mainly short-duration and small-sized hail,they exhibit high vulnerability and relatively weak defense capacity.Conse-quently,these areas represent the regions with the highest hail risk for flue-cured tobacco across the province,as well as the areas with the highest risk for artificial hail suppression operations.In contrast,the northwestern and southwestern regions,where the planting area of flue-cured tobacco is relatively small,are classified as low-risk areas for both flue-cured tobacco hail damage and hail suppression operation sites.In terms of factor selection,the actual conditions of flue-cured tobacco production in Yunnan Province is better reflected in this study.The hail disaster risk zoning for tobacco-growing regions interpolated to the township level emphasizes the risk char-acteristics of flue-cured tobacco cultivation in different townships,while the zoning interpolated to operation sites highlights the risk characteristics of artificial hail suppression operations.The findings can provide a scientific basis for adjusting the industrial structure of flue-cured tobacco cultivation and optimizing the spatial layout of ar-tificial hail suppression operation sites in Yunnan Province.关键词
烤烟区/冰雹灾害/风险评估/人工防雹/云南Key words
tobacco-growing area/hail disaster/risk assessment/artificial hail suppression/Yunnan分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
尹丽云,海云莎,任菊章,成佳丽,郑艺,金文杰,梅寒..云南农业冰雹灾害风险区划与评估[J].灾害学,2026,41(3):28-38,11.基金项目
云南省气象局创新发展专项"防雹作业效果精细化评估技术研究"(QN202504) （QN202504）
云南省科技人才与平台计划项目"弥勒极端天气监测研究与应对云南省野外科学观测研究站"(202605AM340004) （202605AM340004）
基层台站气象科技创新与能力提升计划项目"云南省人工影响天气增雨防雹综合效益分析研究"(STIAP202453) （STIAP202453）
