灾害学2026，Vol.41Issue(3)：49-58,10.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-811X.2026.03.006
秦岭北麓山区铜鹅沟泥石流特征及危险性分析
Movement Characteristics and Risk Analysis of Debris Flows in Tong'e Gully,Northern Foothills of Qinling Mountain
摘要
Abstract
To investigate the movement characteristics and conduct hazard assessment of debris flows in the northern foothills of the Qinling Mountains,taking the August 3,2015 debris flow disaster in Tong'e Gully as a case study,field investigations and data collection are conducted to obtain topographic,material source,and hy-drological conditions.The Massflow software is employed to simulate the dynamic evolution process of the de-bris flow and calculate its key parameters(e.g.,velocity,depth)under different rainfall recurrence intervals(10%,5%,2%,and 1%).A hazard assessment is performed by integrating rainfall frequency and debris flow in-tensity.The results show that:①The back-analysis reveals a peak velocity of 9.77 m/s and a maximum depth of 7.21 m for the 2015 event,with the debris flow completely inundating the downstream village.②As the design rainfall recurrence interval decreases,key indicators such as flow velocity and discharge exhibit an increasing trend.Notably,a 20-year recurrence event would affect the entire Tong'e Village,posing severe threats to lives,property,and the local ecosystem.③Hazard zoning demonstrates that high-risk areas dominate the basin(65%coverage),while medium-and low-risk zones occupy relatively smaller portions.The Tong'e Gully debris flow exhibits a typical"steep-slope acceleration—channel blockage—dam-break amplification"kinematic pattern,with its intensity showing significant correlations with channel gradient and rainfall frequency.The findings sug-gest relocating residents from medium-risk areas and implementing ecological restoration in source regions.This study provides scientific insights for disaster prevention and mitigation in the Qinling Mountains.关键词
秦岭北麓/铜鹅沟泥石流/Massflow/动力过程/危险性分析Key words
northern foothills of Qinling Mountains/Tong'e gully debris flow/Massflow/dynamic process/hazard analysis分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
曹琰波,马志亮,孔嘉旭,王刚,陈生银,常磊,杜晨辉..秦岭北麓山区铜鹅沟泥石流特征及危险性分析[J].灾害学,2026,41(3):49-58,10.基金项目
国家重点研发计划"黄土高原极端天气演化趋势及灾害风险演进机制"(2022YFC3003401) （2022YFC3003401）
