灾害学2026，Vol.41Issue(3)：59-65,7.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-811X.2026.03.007
灾害链视域下网络群体极化舆论危机形成机理研究
Formation Mechanism of Public Opinion Crises Caused by Online Group Polarization under the Perspective of Disaster Chains
摘要
Abstract
Amid the wave of digital intelligence,the immediacy and fragmentation of information dissemina-tion are continuously eroding consensus in cyberspace.Online group polarization,characterized by risk accumu-lation and chain-reaction outbreaks,is increasingly threatening the security of the public opinion ecosystem.A thorough analysis of the factors that trigger online group polarization and the exploration of the multiple forma-tion paths of public opinion crises,followed by targeted public opinion guidance,is an important issue that urgent-ly needs to be addressed.Based on the disaster chain theory,seven antecedent conditions influencing the forma-tion of public opinion crises caused by online group polarization are identified across four dimensions:disaster agent,disaster affected body,disaster-resistant body,and disaster environment.Then from a configurational per-spective,fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis(fsQCA)is employed to explore the multiple concurrent causal relationships among these factors based on 30 hot events from May 2022 to March 2025.The findings re-veal diverse configurational pathways that trigger public opinion crises caused by online group polarization.The results indicate that no single factor could alone constitute the necessary condition for the formation of public opinion crises caused by online group polarization.On the contrary,the seven factors from four dimensions ex-hibit complex multiple concurrent causal relationships.Besides,these factors drive the formation of public opin-ion crises through four typical configurational pathways,namely the"sensitive topic-video catalyst"path,"blind reporting-social attention"path,"high sensitivity and interaction-authority absence"path,and"misinformation diffusion-social attention"path.Specifically,the"sensitive topic-video catalyst"path highlights the emotional am-plification effect of communication formats;the"blind reporting-social attention"path reveals the cognitive shap-ing function of media reporting frameworks;the"high sensitivity and interaction-authority absence"path confirms the pattern of opinion polarization under official silence;and the"misinformation diffusion-social attention"path exposes the destructive nature of false information in a high public attention environment.The findings suggest that relevant stakeholders and mainstream media should attach sufficient importance to socially sensitive topics,ensuring that public opinion monitoring and guidance are timely,measured and effective,thereby fostering a healthy public opinion ecosystem.关键词
网络群体极化/灾害链理论/舆论危机/模糊集定性比较分析/触发路径Key words
online group polarization/disaster chain theory/public opinion crisis/fuzzy-set Qualitative Com-parative Analysis/trigger path分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
苏妍嫄,陈新元,程思敏,张亚明..灾害链视域下网络群体极化舆论危机形成机理研究[J].灾害学,2026,41(3):59-65,7.基金项目
河北省社科基金"多路触发的社交媒体突发公共事件舆情非常规传播机制与应对策略研究"(HB24TQ001) （HB24TQ001）
