灾害学2026，Vol.41Issue(3)：77-88,12.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-811X.2026.03.009
城市暴雨洪涝灾害的救援人员需求预测模型构建及仿真
Construction and Simulation of a Rescue Personnel Demand Forecasting Model for Urban Torrential Rain and Flooding Disasters
摘要
Abstract
The prediction of emergency rescue personnel demand serves as the foundation for the rational al-location of rescue teams,and accurate forecasting of such demand is essential.However,research specifically fo-cusing on the demand for"rescue personnel"as a core active resource remains relatively weak.Therefore,in this study,the main factors influencing rescue personnel demand are determined using an interpretive structural model,and a system dynamics model of rescue personnel demand is constructed based on the causal feedback mechanisms among these factors.Considering the complexity of disaster scenarios,three rescue efficiency levels(high,medium,and low)are set to characterize the difficulty of rescue operations.Simulations of the rescue per-sonnel demand prediction model are conducted using Vensim software,revealing the dynamic trends of rescue personnel demand under different rescue efficiency levels.The results show that:①The influencing factors of rescue personnel demand for urban rainstorm and flood disasters include affected area,population requiring emer-gency transfer and resettlement,conditions of the affected area,population density,affected population,and rain-fall conditions.②The demand for firefighters and military personnel generally shows a decreasing trend,with a relatively slow decline in the initial stage,a significantly accelerated decline in the middle stage,and eventual sta-bilization;the demand for social rescue personnel shows a slight decrease in the middle stage but an overall in-creasing trend;the total demand for rescue personnel increases rapidly in the early stage and then stabilizes,fol-lowed by a decrease and then a slow increase in the middle and late stages.When comparing the three rescue effi-ciency levels,higher rescue efficiency is associated with lower rescue personnel demand,while the change trends remain consistent.③The demand for military personnel is most sensitive to fluctuations in population density and rescue efficiency,whereas the demand for social rescue personnel is least sensitive.By clarifying the influ-ence pathways of rescue personnel demand,a basis for relevant departments is provided in this study to conduct consultations and assessments and to formulate rescue plans,thereby enabling the rational adjustment of rescue forces and reduction of resource waste in response to urban rainstorm and flood disasters.关键词
暴雨洪涝灾害/救援人员需求/系统动力学/解释结构模型/应急响应/仿真模拟Key words
torrential rain and flood disasters/rescue personnel demand/System Dynamics/Interpretative Structural Modeling/emergency response/simulation分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
王雅荣,刘颖,任捷..城市暴雨洪涝灾害的救援人员需求预测模型构建及仿真[J].灾害学,2026,41(3):77-88,12.基金项目
国家自然科学基金青年项目"典型灾害链情景下黄河流域城市安全韧性的动态评估与提升路径研究"(72404153) （72404153）
内蒙古社科基金项目"内蒙古沿黄城市暴雨洪涝灾害风险防控与安全韧性提升路径研究"(2024EY22) （2024EY22）
