灾害学2026，Vol.41Issue(3)：89-97,9.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-811X.2026.03.010
气候灾害风险冲击、支持保护政策与农业高质量发展
Climate Disaster Risk Shocks,Support and Protection Policies,and Agricultural High-quality Development
摘要
Abstract
Climate change,characterized by global warming,is continuously affecting natural systems and human society.China is a sensitive area to global climate change and one of the countries most severely affected by climate disaster events in the world.Agriculture is the foundation of the national economy and the economic sector most vulnerable to climate change.In recent years,climate disaster events such as droughts,high temper-atures,and extreme rainfall have shown characteristics of high frequency,wide impact range,and strong disaster-causing power,increasing the uncertainty faced by agricultural production.Against this backdrop,ex-ploring how climate disaster risks impact agricultural output through input factors and total factor productivity in agriculture,as well as developing new agricultural productivity and formulating various support and protection policies to mitigate the impact of disaster risks,holds significant practical significance.A large number of stud-ies have examined the impact of droughts,high temperatures,and extreme rainfall on agricultural production.However,existing research mainly employs qualitative analysis or econometric analysis to investigate the influ-ence of climate disaster risks on the agricultural economic system from aspects such as changes in the output of important crops,agricultural productivity,and food inflation rates,without treating the agricultural economy as a dynamic interrelated system.Since the 1980s,with the development of computer numerical simulation technol-ogy,dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model have rapidly developed and become the mainstream models for analyzing the causes of economic fluctuations and evaluating policy effectiveness.Different from qualitative analysis and econometric analysis,dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model emphasizes two points in their research paradigm:firstly,macro research should have a micro foundation,and individual behavior should be based on rational expectations,thereby effectively responding to the Lucas critique.secondly,they emphasize quantitative analysis and focus on calibrating model parameters using economic data to effectively describe the operation of the real economy.A DSGE model is used in this study with sectoral heterogeneity and macroeco-nomic data from 1992 between 2023 to systematically examine the impact of climate disaster risk shocks on China's agricultural economic system.The research shows that:Firstly,both productivity risk shocks and capi-tal risk shocks can cause the contraction of the agricultural economic system,but the former affects the agricul-tural economic system through a decline in agricultural productivity and a negative wealth effect,while the latter affects it through capital depreciation effects and expectation channels.Secondly,compared with improving fac-tor allocation,accelerating technological progress is the key path to developing new agricultural productivity and promoting high-quality agricultural development.Thirdly,productive fiscal support for agriculture can signifi-cantly enhance agricultural productivity and thereby promote high-quality agricultural development;credit subsi-dies and interest rate cuts are beneficial for enterprises to reduce costs and increase efficiency and improve re-source allocation efficiency.Therefore,fiscal investment in agricultural science and technology and infrastruc-ture should be increased;through strengthening policy coordination,the balance between"stabilizing growth"and"preventing risks"can be achieved.The DSGE model constructed in this study,which includes agricultural and non-agricultural production sectors,can provide a new analytical tool for analyzing economic fluctuations and policy responses under climate change.The research on the impact effects and transmission mechanisms of productivity risk shocks and capital risk shocks on the agricultural economic system can help improve the climate risk management mechanism and enhance the resilience and adaptability of agriculture to climate change.In ad-dition,the analysis of new agricultural productivity and support and protection policies can provide a basis for optimizing the cultivation direction of new agricultural productivity and strengthening the coordination and coop-eration of fiscal,monetary,and climate policies,as well as improving the evaluation system of support and pro-tection policies.关键词
气候灾害风险/支持保护政策/新质生产力/动态随机一般均衡模型/农业高质量发展Key words
climate disaster risk/support and protection policy/new quality productive forces/dynamic stochastic general equilibrium/agricultural high-quality development分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
丁志帆,孔存玉..气候灾害风险冲击、支持保护政策与农业高质量发展[J].灾害学,2026,41(3):89-97,9.基金项目
全国统计科学研究重大项目"新质生产力视域下中等技术陷阱的统计识别与跨越路径研究"(2024LD003) （2024LD003）
福建省社会科学基金项目"'四链'融合的统计测度及对福建产业转型升级的影响研究"(FJ2025B027) （FJ2025B027）
