安全、健康和环境2026，Vol.26Issue(5)：1-9,9.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1672-7932.2026.04.001
基于模糊层次分析法-博弈论组合赋权法的区域重大危险源风险评估云模型
Cloud Model for Risk Assessment of Regional Major HazardInstallations Based on Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process-Game Theory Combination Weighting Method
摘要
Abstract
Current research on the quantification of major hazard source installations primarily focuses on a single dimension—either inherent risk identification or dynamic risk monitoring—lacking a comprehensive eval-uation that integrates both aspects.To address this gap,this study constructed a regional MHI risk indicator sys-tem based on existing identification standards and dynamic monitoring data,aiming to comprehensively reflect the overall major hazard source installations risk levels across different regions.The Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process(FAHP)was employed to determine the weights of primary indicators,effectively addressing the fuzzi-ness of expert evaluations.To overcome the limitations of single weighting methods,a game theory-based com-bined weighting approach,integrating the entropy weight method and the Criteria Importance Through Intercrite-ria Correlation method,was introduced to calculate the weights of secondary indicators.Subsequently,a com-prehensive cloud model for regional major hazard source installations risk evaluation was constructed by incorpo-rating the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution.The final risk grades of different re-gions were then determined by calculating the similarities between the cloud models.Furthermore,a case study was conducted on the major hazard source installations across 32 provinces,municipalities,and autonomous re-gions in China.The results identified 7 high-risk regions,13 moderate-risk regions,and 12 low-risk regions.These findings demonstrate that the proposed cloud model,based on the FAHP-game theory combined weighting method,can accurately and effectively assess major hazard source installations risks across various regions,yielding results consistent with actual conditions.Therefore,this study provides reliable data support and a deci-sion-making basis for the differentiated and precise regulation of regional major hazard source installations.关键词
模糊层次分析法/博弈论组合赋权法/云模型/重大危险源/安全风险评估Key words
Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process/game-theory combination weighting method/cloud model/major hazard installations/safety risk assessment分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
丁明旭..基于模糊层次分析法-博弈论组合赋权法的区域重大危险源风险评估云模型[J].安全、健康和环境,2026,26(5):1-9,9.基金项目
中国石化科技部课题(KL325001),基于多模态模型融合的炼化企业级安全监管技术研究. （KL325001）
