安全、健康和环境2026，Vol.26Issue(5)：34-42,9.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1672-7932.2026.04.005
基于HFACS-BN的炼化企业动火作业人因风险分析
Human Factors Analysis of Hot Work Risks in Refining and Chemical Enterprises Based on HFACS-BN
摘要
Abstract
In order to explore the core human factors influencing the safety risks of hot work in refining and chemical enterprises,a Human Factors Analysis and Classification System(HFACS)index system adapted to these specific risks was constructed.A novel approach integrating the fuzzy evaluation method with a Bayesian Network(BN)model was employed.Specifically,fuzzy numbers and natural language fuzzy evaluations were u-tilized to calculate the prior probabilities of the root nodes and the conditional probability tables(CPTs)within the BN model.Subsequently,GeNIe software was used to conduct bidirectional inference simulations and root node sensitivity analyses,thereby achieving the quantitative tracing of human factors risks in hot work and the ranking of root node factors.The results indicated that the inadequate establishment and execution of work per-mit regulations,insufficient identification and control of operational safety risks,lax auditing of construction per-sonnel and equipment,and inadequate safety investment were the primary human factors exacerbating hot work safety risks.Consequently,prioritized risk control and management measures based on the sensitivity ranking are proposed to enhance operational safety.关键词
动火作业/人因分析和分类系统(HFACS)/模糊数/贝叶斯网络(BN)/敏感度/人因风险分析Key words
hot work/Human Factors Analysis and Classification System(HFACS)/fuzzy number/Bayesian Network(BN)/sensitivity/human factors analysis分类
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王文正,郑长青,尹志攀,杨凌云,穆波,厉建祥,吴军..基于HFACS-BN的炼化企业动火作业人因风险分析[J].安全、健康和环境,2026,26(5):34-42,9.基金项目
中国石化化工事业部课题(CHG23099),化工装置检修作业危险能量隔离动态管控技术 （CHG23099）
中国石化炼油事业部课题(CLY26042),基于数字化P&ID的能量隔离智能辅助设计及成套锁定设备开发. （CLY26042）
