北京林业大学学报2026，Vol.48Issue(5)：15-25,11.DOI:10.12171/j.1000-1522.20260159
气候驱动下泛喜马拉雅地区多花芍药潜在适生区迁移
Climate-driven shifts in potential suitable habitat of Paeonia emodi across the Pan-Himalaya region
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]For the climate-sensitive plant Paeonia emodi,this study aimed to predict the potential suitable habitat pattern and migration trend across the Pan-Himalaya region under climate change,identify the key environmental limiting factors affecting its distribution,and provide a scientific basis for the conservation and utilization of this species.[Method]Based on 64 filtered occurrence records from the Pan-Himalaya region and six environmental variables,the MaxEnt model combined with GIS was used to simulate the potential suitable habitat of P.emodi during the historical period(1970-2000)and under the SSP2-4.5 scenario for the 2030s,2050s,and 2070s.Jackknife tests,response curves,suitable habitat area statistics,and centroid migration analysis were further conducted to evaluate the dominant environmental factors and future spatiotemporal dynamics of its potential distribution.[Result](1)The model showed high predictive accuracy,with a mean test AUC of 0.986.(2)The core suitable areas were mainly located in northern Pakistan,northern India,Nepal,Bhutan,and southern Xizang of China.(3)The minimum temperature of the coldest month(Bio6),elevation(Elev),and precipitation of the driest month(Bio14)were major environmental factors affecting its distribution.(4)At a broad regional scale,the potential suitable habitat of P.emodi showed an overall shrinking trend and was redistributed toward humid montane high-elevation regions.The centroid of suitable habitat shifted along the Himalayan arc,with an overall tendency toward northern Pakistan and northwestern India.[Conclusion]The potential suitable habitat of P.emodi is highly sensitive to changes in elevation and low-temperature conditions.Future climate warming is likely to cause habitat contraction and concentration toward high-elevation mountain regions.The humid high-elevation areas of the Pan-Himalaya region may serve as core climatic refugia for P.emodi under future climate change,and the distributional marginal regions in southeastern Xizang of China possess both population conservation,genetic diversity maintenance,and ecological early warning value,should be prioritized as key protected areas.关键词
多花芍药/MaxEnt/喜马拉雅高山植物/高山气候避难所/物种分布模型/海拔依赖增温/潜在适生区预测Key words
Paeonia emodi/MaxEnt/Himalayan alpine plants/alpine climate refugia/species distribution model/elevation-dependent warming/potential suitable habitat prediction分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
孙洪喆,于晓南,陈乐,陈启航,高泰,纪晨晨..气候驱动下泛喜马拉雅地区多花芍药潜在适生区迁移[J].北京林业大学学报,2026,48(5):15-25,11.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(32071817). （32071817）
