川北医学院学报2026，Vol.41Issue(5)：535-540,6.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1005-3697.2026.05.004
基于CT和临床特征的列线图模型预测急性胰腺炎经口进食时机:多中心研究
Nomogram model based on CT and clinical features for predicting the timing of oral feeding in acute pancreatitis:A multicenter study
摘要
Abstract
Objective:To identify factors affecting oral feeding resumption timing in acute pancreatitis(AP)and establish a nomogram model that integrates clinical indicators and CT gastrointestinal tract features for guiding AP feeding decisions.Methods:A retrospective multicenter study enrolled 152 AP patients(randomized to 60%training and 40%internal validation cohorts)plus two external validation patients(n=59 and n=55,respectively)from the other two tertiary hospitals.Patients were stratified by early or late feeding initiation(within or after 7 days onset).Clinical data,CT findings including Extrapancreatic Inflammation on CT(EPIC)scores,and gastrointestinal change on CT scores were collected.Independent predictors of early feeding were identified via univariate analysis and multivariate Logistic regression to build a nomogram,with performance evaluated by using the receiver operating characteristic curve,calibration curve,and decision curve analysis(DCA).Results:Serum albumin,EPIC score,and gastrointestinal change on CT score were independent predictors of early oral feeding(P<0.05).The AUC of nomogram model was 0.80(training cohort),outperforming clinical-only(AUC=0.70)and imaging-only(AUC=0.78)models,internal and the other two external validation AUCs were 0.68,0.88 and 0.84,respectively.Calibration and DCA verified good consistency and clinical utility.Conclusion:The integrated nomogram model accurately predicts AP oral feeding time,providing valuable guidance for personalized nutritional management.关键词
急性胰腺炎/对比增强计算机断层扫描/经口进食/临床模型Key words
Acute pancreatitis/Contrast-enhanced computed tomography/Oral Feeding/Clinical model分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
唐超华,吴佳隆,胡友强,周梦婷,张婷,钟馨月,李兴辉,张小明..基于CT和临床特征的列线图模型预测急性胰腺炎经口进食时机:多中心研究[J].川北医学院学报,2026,41(5):535-540,6.基金项目
国家自然科学基金(82371961) （82371961）
川北医学院附属医院科技项目(揭榜挂帅)(2022JB001) （揭榜挂帅）
