大气科学2026，Vol.50Issue(2)：320-340,21.DOI:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2506.25027
CMA-REPS登陆台风路径预报误差特征及订正技术
Error Characteristics and Correction Techniques of CMA-REPS Landing Typhoon Path Forecasts
摘要
Abstract
Taking the landfall typhoons"Nepartak","Nida","Meranti",and"Megi"in mainland China in 2016 as examples,this study evaluates the ensemble forecasts of typhoon track,landfall time,and landfall location using products from the China Meteorological Administration-Regional Ensemble Prediction System(CMA-REPS).Based on this analysis,a new real-time optimal selection scheme for typhoon track ensemble forecasts,the 0-12 h Minimum Cumulative Track Error Scheme(MCTES),is proposed by integrating operational real-time typhoon positioning data.This scheme is compared to the 12 h Minimum Track Error Scheme(MTES)to provide a reference for more effective operational applications of CMA-REPS typhoon track ensemble forecasts.The results are summarized as follows:(1)Overall,for typhoon track forecasting of landfalling typhoons,the ensemble mean forecast of CMA-REPS is inferior to the control forecast.(2)The MCTES real-time optimal typhoon track ensemble forecast selection scheme significantly improves the typhoon track predictions of both the CMA-REPS ensemble mean and control forecasts,outperforming the MTES scheme,CMA-REPS control forecast,and ensemble mean in sequence.Compared with the control forecast,the MCTES scheme reduced the average absolute errors in typhoon landing time,landing point,and the 12-hourly track movement within the 24-72 h forecast validity time by 0.4 h,34.3 km,and 21.1 km,respectively.Compared with the ensemble mean,these errors were reduced by 1.1 h,36.4 km,and 31.7 km,respectively.(3)Integrating the optimal members selected by the MCTES scheme with the control forecast members further reduces the typhoon track forecast errors.Compared with the ensemble mean,the average distance error of the control forecast was reduced by-5.21%-11.51%;the MCTES scheme increased the reduction to 13.42%-19.83%;and the integrated scheme of MCTES and control forecast further increased the reduction to 16.28%-20.83%.关键词
CMA-REPS/区域集合预报/台风路径预报/订正技术Key words
CMA-REPS/Regional ensemble forecast/Typhoon track forecast/Correction technique分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
王叶红,赵玉春,叶龙彬,苏志重,荀爱萍..CMA-REPS登陆台风路径预报误差特征及订正技术[J].大气科学,2026,50(2):320-340,21.基金项目
公益性行业(气象)科研专项201506007,福建省气象局开放式气象科学研究基金项目2023KJ05,厦门市自然科学基金项目3502Z202573107 Nonprofit Industry(Meteorology)Research Subject(Grant 201506007),Open Research Programme of Fujian Meteorological Bureau(Grant 2023KJ05),Xiamen Natural Science Foundation(Grant 3502Z202573107) （气象）
