大气科学2026，Vol.50Issue(2)：341-364,24.DOI:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2504.24086
南海台风模式成功预报"暹芭(2022)"生成原因探究
Analysis of the Successful Genesis Forecast of"Chaba(2022)"by CMA-TRAMS
摘要
Abstract
Based on the tropical regional atmospheric model system of the China Meteorological Administration(CMA-TRAMS)and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF),the forecast differences of tropical cyclone(TC)formation for the No.3 Typhoon"Chaba"in 2022 are compared and analyzed.The reasons for the successful genesis prediction by CMA-TRAMS for Typhoon"Chaba"are investigated from different aspects,such as the development environment of tropical cyclone(TC)embryos,physical processes within TC embryos,and embryo structure and the corresponding development.The results indicate that numerical models are required to have a good descriptive ability in terms of the aforementioned aspects to perform well in TC generation forecasts.This study is beneficial for understanding the main physical processes and factors closely related to TC generation prediction in numerical models.It also provides clues for subsequent model development and improvement.The results indicate that a significant difference in the cyclonic circulation pattern of the monsoon trough in the western Philippines between the 72 h and 120 h forecasts is the direct cause of the difference in TC generation forecasts between the two models.CMA-TRAMS predicts the generation,development,and merging of multiple mesoscale convective systems(MCSs)or mesoscale convective vortices(MCVs)in a positive vorticity environment from 96 h to 120 h.It also predicts the organization of circulation to form warm core structures,which is important in its successful prediction of the formation of"Chaba."The accuracy of wind field forecasting in the western monsoon trough of the Philippines may have a significant impact on the prediction of TC generation in the South China Sea.The continuous convergence and merging of MCSs and MCVs,as well as the organization of cyclone circulation,are important physical processes for TC formation.The results of this study have deepened our understanding regarding the main physical processes involved in TC formation,enhanced our knowledge of the influencing factors of numerical model prediction for TC formation,and provided clues for improving model forecasts.关键词
南海台风模式CMA-TRAMS/"暹芭"台风/数值预报/生成预报Key words
Tropical regional atmospheric model system of China Meteorological Administration(CMA-TRAMS)/Typhoon Chaba/Numerical weather prediction/TC genesis forecast分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
黄燕燕,陈子通,戴光丰,李梦婕,张诚忠,郑彬..南海台风模式成功预报"暹芭(2022)"生成原因探究[J].大气科学,2026,50(2):341-364,24.基金项目
广东省基础与应用基础研究基金2022A1515011870、2025A1515011835,国家自然科学基金项目42275123,粤港澳大湾区气象科技协同攻关项目GHMA2025Y01、GHMA2024Y02,广东省气象局科技创新团队GRMCTD202506-ZD06 Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation(Grants 2022A1515011870,2025A1515011835),National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant 42275123),GBA Meteorological S&T Collaborative Research Project(Grant GHMA2025Y01,GHMA2024Y02),Key Innovation Team of Guangdong Meteorological Bureau(Grant GRMCTD202506-ZD06) （Grants 2022A1515011870,2025A1515011835）
