福建农业学报2026，Vol.41Issue(3)：365-373,9.DOI:10.19303/j.issn.1008-0384.2026.03.010
未来气候背景下茶蚜在中国的适生区预测
Potential Habiting Areas of Toxoptera aurantii in China under Forecast Climate
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]Key environmental factors shaping the geographic distribution and probable habiting areas in China under the forecast climatic conditions of Toxoptera aurantii Böyer de Fonscolombe were identified for better pest control management.[Methods]Using MaxEnt model and based on the past records on the spread of tea aphids and validated environmental variables,patterns of T.aurantii population distribution under current and two predicted climate scenarios for the period between 2041 and 2 060 were constructed.[Results]A satisfactory mean area under curve of 0.872 in predicting pest distribution was obtained on the MaxEnt model using the data from existing records.At present,the total area in China suitable for T.aurantii habitation was approximately 3.30×106 km2.It is primarily located in the east,central,south,and most of the southwest,accounting for 34.38%of the nation's terrestrial territory.The major environmental determinants for the infestation included temperature-related variables,e.g.,range of annual temperature and minimum temperature in the coldest month,and precipitation-related annual and precipitations in the driest month.[Conclusion]To date,T.aurantii already spread wide in the country.The coverage area was highly possible to further disperse in the years to come.By 2041-2 060,the projected total habitable area for the pest insects under two forecast climate scenarios was to expand,especially in northeastward and southwestward directions.Consequently,timely upgrading the early warning system and formulating an effective control strategy would be crucial to safeguard sustainable and healthy development of the nation's tea industry.关键词
茶蚜/气候变化/适生区预测/最大熵模型/潜在分布区Key words
Toxoptera aurantia/climate change/predicted infestation area/MaxEnt model/potential distribution分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
林昌进,钟文玉,贺思语,丁雅冰,杨永华,陈李林..未来气候背景下茶蚜在中国的适生区预测[J].福建农业学报,2026,41(3):365-373,9.基金项目
福建省科技计划引导性项目(2024N0053) （2024N0053）
南平市科技特派员专项(N2023T011) （N2023T011）
福建农林大学大学生创新训练项目(202510389377) （202510389377）
