国际石油经济2026，Vol.34Issue(5)：49-57,9.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1004-7298.2026.05.006
美以伊战事演化路径研究
The evolution path of the U.S.-Israel-Iran War:a structural analysis based on U.S.oil price affordability
摘要
Abstract
The US-Israel-Iran war has evolved from initial military confrontation into a war of attrition that tests the economic resilience and strategic patience of all parties.Drawing on theories of energy economics and geopolitics,and taking into account the historical evolution and current dynamics of US oil price tolerance,this paper systematically analyzes the US capacity to withstand high oil prices across such three dimensions as macroeconomics,industrial development,and household consumption,explores the intrinsic mechanisms through which this tolerance shapes the duration of the war,and projects its evolutionary trajectory by incorporating mediating factors such as the US dollar exchange rate and inflation transmission.It reveals that the US economy has achieved significant"desensitization"to high oil prices after the shale revolution and its status as an energy-independent nation and a major oil and gas exporter enables it to reap substantial benefits from elevated prices.At present,with WTI crude oil prices below 100 per barrel,macroeconomic risks in the US remain manageable and only when prices reach 120 per barrel does household consumption approach a critical threshold.This robust tolerance would explain why the US feels no urgency to quickly end the war.Moreover,Iran's economic vulnerability may further reinforce America's strategic patience in prolonging the conflict,which will most likely follow a pattern of"prolonged duration with intermittent escalation".关键词
美国/油价承受力/美以伊战事/能源独立/地缘政治Key words
The United States/oil price tolerance/the US-Israel-Iran War/energy independence/geopolitics分类
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陆亚晨,马美艳,戴家权..美以伊战事演化路径研究[J].国际石油经济,2026,34(5):49-57,9.基金项目
本文为中国石油集团发展计划部战略研究课题"'十五五'时期中国石油面临宏观形势研究"的成果. （）
