国际石油经济2026，Vol.34Issue(5)：58-67,10.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1004-7298.2026.05.007
美以伊战事对全球天然气市场的影响及中国应对策略建议
The impact of the U.S.-Israel-Iran War on global natural gas and China's countermeasure suggestions
付川 1周淑慧 1昝光杰 1施悦雯 1王雅菲1
作者信息
摘要
Abstract
This paper systematically examines such impacts of the US-Israel-Iran War on global natural gas markets as global LNG supply and demand are shifting from loose to tight in 2026.The timeline for a global LNG surplus,which was initially expected in 2026-2027 as projected at the beginning of 2026,is now delayed to 2028-2030 firstly,international natural gas prices display sharp boom-and-bust characteristics,the JKM price is projected to rebound to USD 18-20/MMBtu during summer 2026 under a moderate-stalemate scenario,while a prolonged-blockade scenario poses a tail risk of JKM breaching USD 25/MMBtu secondly,the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has caused LNG vessel transit volumes to collapse by more than 95%,substantially inflating shipping costs thirdly,intensified competition between Europe and Asia for spot cargoes has emerged in the near term and the global LNG trade architecture is reorienting from price-driven to supply-security-driven trade over the medium to long term fourthly,China's LNG imports from Qatar are severely disrupted,potentially creating a supply shortfall in 2026 under a prolonged-blockade scenario finally.It proposes countermeasures from such five dimensions as simultaneously managing supply and demand to ensure stable supply at stable prices,improving the fairness of force majeure clauses in long-term LNG contracts,optimizing the layout of import routes,accelerating the conclusion of long-term supply agreements,and strengthening long-term supply assurance mechanisms.关键词
美以伊战事/霍尔木兹海峡/LNG市场/供应/需求/价格Key words
the US-Israel-Iran War/the Strait of Hormuz/LNG market/supply/demand/price分类
社会科学引用本文复制引用
付川,周淑慧,昝光杰,施悦雯,王雅菲..美以伊战事对全球天然气市场的影响及中国应对策略建议[J].国际石油经济,2026,34(5):58-67,10.
