海河水利Issue(5)：42-47,6.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1004-7328.2026.05.007
东鱼河鱼台站2024年"7·20"旱涝急转型暴雨洪水预报分析
Forecast and Analysis of Drought-Flood Abrupt Transition Rainstorm Flood at Yutai Station of Dongyu River on"7•20"in 2024
陈硕 1时延庆 1张健1
作者信息
- 1. 济宁市水文中心,山东 济宁 272000
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
On July 20,2024,Yutai Station of Dongyu River encountered high-intensity rainstorm flood under the condition of abrupt drought-flood transition.The measured flood peak discharge reached 767 m³/s,which was the second largest flood since the station was built.This paper adopts the runoff distribution hydrograph method to conduct flood forecasting,focusing on runoff yield calculation,confluence deduction,backwater correction and real-time rolling forecast revision,and verifies and evaluates the forecasting accuracy.The results show that this flood is characterized by short duration,high intensity,rapid rise,high peak and stable recession.After backwater correction and rolling forecast revision,the final forecasted flood peak discharge is 795 m³/s,the forecasting results are qualified and can meet the needs of flood control and dispatch in the basin.This paper also analyzes the shortcomings of traditional empirical methods in parameter calibration,and puts forward measures to improve accuracy such as optimizing model parameters,strengthening extreme case research,and improving the rolling forecast mechanism.The research results can provide practical references for rainstorm flood forecasting in similar small and medium-sized basins in Dongyu River Basin and the western plain of Nansi Lake.关键词
东鱼河/鱼台站/暴雨洪水/洪水预报Key words
Dongyu River/Yutai Station/rainstorm flood/flood forecast分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
陈硕,时延庆,张健..东鱼河鱼台站2024年"7·20"旱涝急转型暴雨洪水预报分析[J].海河水利,2026,(5):42-47,6.
