环境工程学报2026，Vol.20Issue(5)：1397-1411,15.DOI:10.12030/j.cjee.202509047
SSP情景下植被碳通量模拟与预测
Modeling and forecasting of vegetation carbon fluxes under the SSP scenario
摘要
Abstract
To reveal the dynamic characteristics of carbon flux in ecosystem and its response to meteorological factors,this study utilized multi-source data,including regional meteorology,vegetation types,and soil texture spatial distribution.The Biome-BGC model was employed to simulate the Gross Primary Productivity(GPP)and Net Primary Productivity(NPP)of vegetation in Beijing for both the historical period(2001-2014)and future scenarios(SSP126 and SSP585,2 051-2 070).The M-K method and EOF method were used to analyze the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of carbon flux,and the carbon use efficiency(CUE)of vegetation was estimated.The results showed that the Biome-BGC model effectively simulated the spatial and temporal characteristics of carbon flux during the historical period in Beijing.Temporally,the annual mean GPP and NPP exhibited a fluctuating upward trend,with ranges of 584～777 and 238.84～388.80 g·m-2·a-1,respectively.Spatially,both GPP and NPP demonstrated patterns of synchronous and opposite distribution.The annual mean temperature was the primary factor influencing the trends of GPP and NPP in the region,followed by solar radiation and precipitation.In the future,the GPP and NPP of Beijing's vegetation ecosystem are projected to increase,with the SSP585 scenario being more favorable for vegetation growth.By 2 070,GPP is expected to increase by 171 and 376 g·m-2·a-1 under the SSP126 and SSP585 scenarios,respectively,while NPP is projected to increase by 71.8 and 137 g·m-2·a-1.The spatial distribution of GPP and NPP in Beijing exhibits a"low-middle-high surrounding"pattern,with multi-year averages of 969 and 425 g·m-2·a-1,respectively.Under future SSP scenarios,the carbon use efficiency of Beijing's vegetation is approximately 0.45,indicating a significant carbon sequestration potential for the ecosystem in the future.关键词
SSP情景/Biome-BGC模型/北京市/碳通量Key words
SSP scenarios/Biome-BGC model/Beijing/carbon flux分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
周宇慈,刘晨晨,王小萱,李薇,赵博,郭军红..SSP情景下植被碳通量模拟与预测[J].环境工程学报,2026,20(5):1397-1411,15.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目(5108-202357061A-1-1-ZN) （5108-202357061A-1-1-ZN）
