净水技术2026，Vol.45Issue(5)：162-170,178,10.DOI:10.15890/j.cnki.jsjs.2026.05.019
基于失效风险指数的S市供水管网优化调度
Optimized Controling of Water Supply Pipelines Network Based on Failure Risk Index in S City
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]To achieve leakage reduction and control in urban water supply networks,it is necessary to construct a safe and reliable water supply system.The risk assessment of pipe failure can predict high-risk pipes in advance,forming the basis for ensuring the long-term stable operation of water supply networks.[Methods]Taking S City's water supply network as the research object,Logistic regression was used,with pipe material,diameter,age,operating pressure,burial depth,and road grade as evaluation factors for failure probability assessment.Based on the result of the hydraulic model simulation,the water supply shortage rate was used as an evaluation factor for failure consequence assessment.A failure risk index was proposed,multiplying the failure probability value with the consequence value to obtain the risk assessment result of pipe failure.With the minimum failure risk index as the optimization goal and six equations or equation groups(including pump station power consumption cost)as constraints,a network optimization scheduling model was constructed,and the optimal pump scheduling plan for S City was obtained using a genetic algorithm program.[Results]The proportion of high failure risk pipelines in S City was 1.12％,of which 0.38％were a high probaility-high consequence,0.42％were a high probability-low consequence,and 0.32％were a low probability-high consequence.After optimization scheduling,the total failure risk value of the water network in S City decreased from 12.601 to 11.739,with a approximately reduction of 6.84％.[Conclusion]Using the failure risk assessment model can screen out some abnormal pipes with high probability-low consequence and low probability-high consequence,further narrowing the scope of abnormal pipes,optimizing the decision-making for pipeline renewal and reconstruction by the water supply company,and saving the cost of pipe renewal and reconstruction.Optimization scheduling with the minimum failure risk index as the optimization goal not only effectively reduces the failure risk of the network,improves the safety of the water supply,but also maximizes the economic benefits of the water supply companies while ensuring the comfort of users' water use.关键词
城市供水管网/失效风险评价/优化调度/Logistic回归/遗传算法Key words
urban water supply pipelines network/failure risk evaluation/optimized controling/Logistic regression/genetic algorithm分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
王光辉,李坤仪,高金良,李远哲,靖一丹,张天天..基于失效风险指数的S市供水管网优化调度[J].净水技术,2026,45(5):162-170,178,10.基金项目
国家重点研发计划(2022YFC3203800) （2022YFC3203800）
国家自然科学基金(51978203) （51978203）
揭榜制科研项目(CE602022000203) （CE602022000203）
黑龙江省重点研发计划(2022ZX01A06) （2022ZX01A06）
