交通运输工程与信息学报2026，Vol.24Issue(3)：51-68,18.DOI:10.19961/j.cnki.1672-4747.2025.10.032
高速公路交通风险多因素叠加作用与特征解析
Analysis of multi-factor superposition effects and characteristics in highway traffic risk
摘要
Abstract
[Background]The interrelationships among multiple risk factors during the occurrence of traffic accidents are highly complex.When multiple risk factors superposition simultaneously,a"su-perposition effect"is formed owing to the interactions among elements,which increases the com-plexity of traffic accident risk assessment.[Objective]To analyze the overlapping relationships among the influencing factors of traffic accident risk,this study proposed a superposition model to evaluate different dynamic traffic risk factors with the aim of identifying the superposition effects among multidimensional risk factors.[Method]First,dynamic traffic risk sources were quantified and standardized.Then,based on the relationship between the volatility of the risk series identified by the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity(GARCH)model and value at risk(VaR),a GARCH-VaR model was constructed.The interactions among the different risk factors were analyzed by evaluating the VaR sequences of each risk.[Data]By collecting data on traffic volume,inner-lane speed,inter-lane speed difference,temperature,precipitation,daily maximum wind speed,daily average wind speed,visibility,and traffic accidents from certain highway sections,a multidi-mensional dynamic risk database was established to ensure data diversity.[Result]The results indi-cated that when conducting a superimposed risk assessment,the superimposed effects among various risk factors were relatively complex.The magnitude of risk did not necessarily increase with the number of superimposed risk factors;the relationship between them was not a simple linear one but rather exhibited certain synergistic or offsetting dynamics.[Application]In conclusion,with regards to road traffic accident risk management,comprehensive risk management measures should be devel-oped for different superposition scenarios by considering the complex relationships among risk fac-tors,so as to improve the level of road traffic safety.关键词
交通工程/GARCH-VaR模型/叠加效应评估/多维交通风险/风险评估Key words
traffic engineering/GARCH-VaR model/superposition effect evaluation/multidimen-sional traffic risks/risk assessment分类
交通工程引用本文复制引用
黄磊,郭淼,姚莹,秦雅琴,苏雨欣..高速公路交通风险多因素叠加作用与特征解析[J].交通运输工程与信息学报,2026,24(3):51-68,18.基金项目
国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目(C类)(52502422) （C类）
云南省科技厅科学技术普及项目(202504AM350017) （202504AM350017）
