交通运输工程与信息学报2026，Vol.24Issue(3)：114-125,12.DOI:10.19961/j.cnki.1672-4747.2025.09.033
建成环境对交通事故伤亡的时变影响
Temporal stability of built environment impacts on traffic crash casualties:a copula-based bivariate model
摘要
Abstract
[Background]With the acceleration of urbanization and continuous growth of motor vehi-cle ownership,traffic accidents have become a critical public issue constraining social safety devel-opment in China.Traditional studies frequently use univariate models that focus solely on fatalities or injuries,limiting our understanding of their joint mechanisms.In addition,existing research pro-vides insufficient evidence regarding the temporal variability of influencing factors.[Method]This study developed a bivariate negative binomial regression model based on the Gaussian Copula frame-work to examine the joint distribution of traffic fatalities and injuries across prefecture-level cities in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.The model also evaluates the temporal stability of the impact of built environment characteristics on crash casualties across multiple time periods.[Data]The study used crash records from the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 2017 to 2020,as well as socioeco-nomic indicators and point of interest(POI)data.The built-environment variables were constructed from eight dimensions:economic development,demographic attributes,living services,consumption and entertainment facilities,business establishments,scenic attractions,public services,and transpor-tation facilities.[Result]The results revealed significant positive correlations between fatalities and injuries across all years,with correlation coefficients of 0.644,0.610,0.527,and 0.503(all P<0.001).The optimal Gaussian copula-based bivariate negative binomial models indicate that the tem-porally stable factors influencing fatalities include Gross Domestic Product(GDP),population densi-ty,and scenic attractions,among others,with population density showing the strongest effect in 2020(-0.930;P<0.001).The stable factors for injuries included population density,automobile services,and catering services,with the latter showing the highest impact in 2019(1.634;P<0.001).[Appli-cation]This study extends the theoretical framework for modeling crash data and provides empirical insights to support traffic safety management and urban planning in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei re-gion,particularly for mitigating human-vehicle conflicts,optimizing dynamic traffic control strate-gies,and improving transportation infrastructure.关键词
交通事故/伤亡人数/双变量负二项回归/Copula函数/建成环境/时间稳定性Key words
traffic crash/number of casualties/bivariate negative binomial regression/Copula func-tion/built environment/temporal stability分类
交通工程引用本文复制引用
陈鹏,宋栋栋,支丹月,刘永涛..建成环境对交通事故伤亡的时变影响[J].交通运输工程与信息学报,2026,24(3):114-125,12.基金项目
中国博士后科学基金资助项目(2025M771633) （2025M771633）
陕西省自然科学基础研究计划项目(2025JC-YBQN-558) （2025JC-YBQN-558）
长安大学中央高校基本科研业务专项资金资助项目(300102225101) （300102225101）
