煤矿安全2026，Vol.57Issue(5)：277-288,12.DOI:10.13347/j.cnki.mkaq.20250593
基于SEM-SD的矿工安全偏离行为仿真研究
Simulation study on miners'safety deviant behavior based on SEM-SD
摘要
Abstract
To explore the evolution law and intervention focus of miners'safety deviant behavior from implicit accumulation to ex-plicit outbreak driven by psychological factors,a behavioral simulation study was conducted by combining the structural equation model with system dynamics(SEM-SD).Firstly,a theoretical model was constructed based on the extended theory of planned beha-vior,integrating six variables including behavioral attitude,subjective norm,perceived behavioral control,risk propensity,behavior-al intention and safety deviant behavior,and the influence relationship hypotheses among the variables were proposed.Then,data from 277 front-line miners were collected through questionnaire surveys,and a structural equation model was established to empiric-ally test the theoretical hypotheses.Finally,a system dynamics model was constructed based on the empirically identified variable re-lationship network and estimated parameters for dynamic simulation.The simulation results show that:firstly,under the condition of no intervention,the miners'safety deviant behavior shows a phased evolution characteristic over time.The level of safety deviant be-havior is relatively stable within three months and begins to rise rapidly after three months,presenting a trend of"stable in the early stage and sudden increase in the later stage".Secondly,the sensitivity analysis shows that the influence intensity of each driving factor on safety deviant behavior is different,in the order of behavioral intention>risk propensity>subjective norm>perceived be-havioral control>behavioral attitude.Finally,by comparing the effect of direct and indirect driving factors,it is found that the com-bination of indirect driving factors such as behavioral attitude,subjective norm,perceived behavioral control and risk propensity has a more significant long-term intervention effect on safety deviant behavior than the direct driving effect of behavioral intention.This study result reveals the evolution law and intervention focus of safety deviant behavior,aiming to provide a certain basis for formu-lating phased and precise dynamic intervention strategies in coal mine safety management.关键词
矿工安全偏离行为/煤矿安全管理/计划行为理论/结构方程模型/系统动力学/动态仿真Key words
miners'safety deviant behavior/coal mine safety management/theory of planned behavior/structural equation model-ing(SEM)/system dynamics(SD)/dynamic simulation分类
矿业与冶金引用本文复制引用
陈铁华,冯光耀,李红霞..基于SEM-SD的矿工安全偏离行为仿真研究[J].煤矿安全,2026,57(5):277-288,12.基金项目
国家社会科学基金资助项目(20XGL025) （20XGL025）
