可再生能源2026，Vol.44Issue(5)：652-660,9.
计及惯量响应及风光联合出力的新型电力系统运行风险评估
Operational risk assessment of a new power system considering inertia response and wind-solar combined output
摘要
Abstract
Aiming at the problem that the current blackout accident models of power systems fail to effectively simulate the inconsistent distribution between disturbed power and actual conditions during the inertia response process after system disturbances,this paper establishes an evolution model of power system blackout accidents considering inertia response,and proposes a novel operation risk assessment method for new power systems accounting for inertia response and wind-solar combined output.Firstly,starting from the uncertainty and correlation of wind and solar power output,a probabilistic model of wind-solar combined output is selected.Secondly,system states are sampled by the non-sequential Monte Carlo method,and a novel operation risk assessment framework for new power systems considering inertia response and wind-solar combined output is constructed by combining the inertia response and self-organized criticality characteristics of power systems.On the basis of risk indices such as voltage violation severity,line overload severity and load loss severity,the risk index of initial frequency change severity is added,and the weight of each index is calculated by the analytic hierarchy process.Finally,taking a regional power grid in HN as an example,the risk assessment of the new power system integrated with wind and photovoltaic farms is carried out with and without virtual inertia support under different proportions of wind-solar output,which verifies the feasibility and practicability of the proposed model.关键词
新型电力系统/惯量响应/扰动功率/非序贯蒙特卡洛法/风险评估Key words
new power system/inertia response/disturbed power/monte carlo method/risk assessment分类
能源科技引用本文复制引用
于群,梁艳永,曹娜,赵静波,陈哲..计及惯量响应及风光联合出力的新型电力系统运行风险评估[J].可再生能源,2026,44(5):652-660,9.基金项目
国家电网有限公司科技项目(5100-202455028A-1-1-ZN). （5100-202455028A-1-1-ZN）
