现代农业研究2026，Vol.32Issue(5)：31-36,6.
我国奶业主产区养殖碳排放脱钩效应研究
Study on the Decoupling Effect of Livestock Carbon Emissions in Major Dairy Producing Areas of China
摘要
Abstract
Under the goals of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality,promoting greenhouse gas emission reductions in the dairy industry has become a key issue restricting the green and low-carbon development of China's dairy sector.This paper uses the IPCC coefficient method to estimate the total carbon emissions and carbon emission intensity of dairy farming in China's main dairy-producing regions from 2011 to 2023,and applies the Tapio decoupling model to analyze the decoupling effect of carbon emissions.The results show that the total carbon emissions in the main dairy-producing regions of China indicates a trend of high-level fluctuating growth-sharp decline-slow recovery,while car-bon emission intensity shows a trend of slow decline first,then rapid decline,and then slow decline again,with a cliff-like drop occurring in 2017.There are significant regional differences in both carbon emissions and carbon emis-sion intensity,and the relationship between carbon emissions and dairy industry economic development is dominated by strong decoupling,interspersed with weak decoupling and expansive negative decoupling.Finally,it proposes suggestions to facilitate the low-carbon development of China's main dairy-producing regions,such as implementing differentiated regional emission reduction strategies,promoting overall convergence of carbon emission intensity,continuously investing in technological innovation and strengthening the state of strong decoupling.关键词
奶业/碳排放强度/脱钩效应Key words
dairy industry/carbon intensity/decoupling effect分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
李彤,王凯,周美琳,祝丽云..我国奶业主产区养殖碳排放脱钩效应研究[J].现代农业研究,2026,32(5):31-36,6.基金项目
2023年度河北省社会科学发展研究课题"双碳目标下河北省奶业绿色发展研究"(项目编号:20230103003) （项目编号:20230103003）
河北省现代农业产业技术体系建设专项资金(项目编号:HBCT2024230301). （项目编号:HBCT2024230301）
