农业资源与环境学报2026，Vol.43Issue(3)：661-668,8.DOI:10.13254/j.jare.2025.0099
基于马尔可夫链-PLUS模型的伊洛河流域土地利用变化模拟与多情景预测
Land use change simulation and multi-scenario prediction in the Yiluo River basin based on the Markov chain-PLUS model
摘要
Abstract
To predict the multi-scenario land use evolution trends in the Yiluo River basin and reveal policy-driven land system response mechanisms,this study integrated the Markov chain-PLUS model with land use transfer matrices and dynamic degree indices.Three scenarios were designed:baseline continuation,cropland protection redline,and ecological priority,to simulate the 2030 land use pattern.Results showed that from 2000 to 2020,cropland decreased by 818.85 km2 while woodland increased by 950.33 km2,and construction land expanded by 569.05 km2.Notably,43.96％of cropland was converted to construction land.Model validation yielded a Kappa coefficient of 0.803 and a Figure of Merit(FoM)of 0.169.Multi-scenario projections indicated that under the baseline continuation scenario,construction land would expand by 296.08 km2.Under the cropland protection redline scenario,cultivated land remained stable,but grassland area further decreased by 37.97 km2.Under the ecological priority scenario,grassland area exhibited by 17.36 km2.This study suggests the Yiluo River basin needs a spatially differentiated governance system:controlling urban sprawl in eastern plains,optimizing afforestation layouts in western mountains,and strengthening cropland protection in central river valleys.The model provides technical support for the pre-assessment of policy effectiveness.关键词
土地利用预测/马尔可夫链-PLUS模型/伊洛河流域/情景模拟/可持续管理Key words
land use prediction/Markov chain-PLUS model/Yiluo River basin/scenario simulation/sustainable management引用本文复制引用
苏浩淼,闫俊飞,吴泽宁,王慧亮..基于马尔可夫链-PLUS模型的伊洛河流域土地利用变化模拟与多情景预测[J].农业资源与环境学报,2026,43(3):661-668,8.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(52279028) （52279028）
