农业资源与环境学报2026，Vol.43Issue(3)：803-813,11.DOI:10.13254/j.jare.2025.0160
长江中游粮食主产区农作物生产碳公平时空演变与驱动因素
Spatiotemporal evolution and driving factors of carbon equity in crop production in the main grain producing areas of the middle reaches of the Yangtze River
摘要
Abstract
To identify the spatiotemporal characteristics and driving factors of carbon equity in crop production in major grain-producing areas,this study analyzed the carbon equity coefficient of crop production in the middle Yangtze River grain-producing region from 2008 to 2023 based on carbon source-sink assessment.The XGBoost machine learning model was used to identify the key driving factors of carbon equity.The results revealed that from 2008 to 2023,the carbon equity coefficient in the middle Yangtze River grain-producing region was generally greater than 1,but it exhibited fluctuations,with peak growth rates of 1.351％(highest)and-0.665％(lowest),respectively.Significant differences in carbon equity levels were observed among provinces,with Jiangxi Province having the highest level,Hunan Province ranking second,and Hubei Province having the lowest.Carbon equity exhibited significant spatial heterogeneity,with high-value areas distributed continuously and low-value areas scattered sporadically,with some cities remaining in a low-value state over the long term.Temperature was identified as the core variable influencing carbon equity in the study area,followed by urbanization levels and agricultural labor input.Studies show that by formulating regional differentiated policy support strategies,optimizing the synergistic promotion of urbanization and agricultural green transformation,and establishing and improving a carbon equity monitoring and evaluation system,the regional carbon equity level can be comprehensively improved,thereby promoting sustainable agricultural development and low-carbon transition.关键词
农作物生产/碳公平/驱动因素/XGBoost模型/长江中游粮食主产区Key words
crop production/carbon equity/driving factor/XGBoost model/main grain producing areas in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River引用本文复制引用
吕添贵,袁梦涵,黄贤哲,杨道田,付舒斐,陈安莹..长江中游粮食主产区农作物生产碳公平时空演变与驱动因素[J].农业资源与环境学报,2026,43(3):803-813,11.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(42261049) （42261049）
江西省自然科学基金项目(20232BAB203061) （20232BAB203061）
江西省教改课题一般项目(JXJG-24-4-27) （JXJG-24-4-27）
江西财经大学第十九届学生科研课题(20241129114437796) （20241129114437796）
