气象2026，Vol.52Issue(5)：527-537,11.DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2026.032901
"风顺"模型对中国盛夏气温候尺度预测技巧评估
Assessment of Pentad-Scale Prediction Skill of the Fengshun Model for Midsummer Temperature over China
摘要
Abstract
Based on the hindcast datasets from the Fengshun Model and the S2S-ECMWF Model,together with CMA-RA1.0 and NCEP reanalysis data and station observations during 2017-2021,the pentad-scale prediction skills of the Fengshun Model and the S2S-ECMWF Model for midsummer(July—August)tem-perature over China are comparatively verified.Three metrics of temporal correlation coefficient(TCC),anomaly correlation coefficient(ACC),and integrated prediction score(IPS)are adopted.The results are as follows.The verification results based on different reference datasets are generally consistent,demon-strating their good robustness.Overall,the Fengshun Model shows superior prediction skill to the S2S-ECMWF Model,with TCC,ACC and IPS values improved by 7.9％,18.4％,and 1.5％,respectively.Spatially,the Fengshun Model exhibits higher TCC skill in the Huang-Huai(Yellow River-Huaihe Riv-er),Jiang-Huai(Yangtze River-Huaihe River),Central China,South China,East China,and Xinjiang re-gions,but showing relatively lower skill in Northeast China,Inner Mongolia,the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau,and Southwest China.Temporally,the Fengshun Model demonstrates superior prediction skill with 1 pen-tad and 4-8 pentad lead times,with the highest skill appearing at a 6 pentad lead time,and improvements in TCC,ACC and IPS can reach 42％,260％,and 4.5％,respectively,which indicates an extended pre-dictability window.This advantage is primarily attributed to the Fengshun Model's better characterization of 500 hPa geopotential height anomalies over key circulation regions in mid-latitudes of Asia.However,the Fengshun Model shows a relatively weak prediction skill with 2 pentad to 3 pentad lead times,which is likely due to the decay of initial atmospheric signals and insufficient influence from underlying surface in-formation.Future improvement focus will be put on incorporating multi-layer surface information to fur-ther enhance the model's prediction performance.关键词
风顺模型/预测技巧评估/盛夏气温/候尺度Key words
Fengshun Model/prediction skill assessment/midsummer temperature/pentad-scale分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
刘俊杰,辛昱杭,赵阳,钱奇峰,陆波,李昊,陈磊,仲晓辉,周辰光,胡家晖,吴捷,赵春燕.."风顺"模型对中国盛夏气温候尺度预测技巧评估[J].气象,2026,52(5):527-537,11.基金项目
国家自然科学基金气象联合基金项目(U2542210)、国家重点研发计划(2021YFA0718000)、中国气象局复盘总结专项(FPZJ2025-056、FPZJ2025-168)、华东区域气象科技协同创新基金合作项目(QYHZ202310)、中国气象局智能网格气候预测青年创新团队(CMA2024QN06)、数值预报统筹研发专项(TCYF2025QH004)和中国气象局气象能力提升联合研究专项(24NLTSZD03)共同资助 （U2542210）
