气象2026，Vol.52Issue(5)：580-594,15.DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2026.040202
长三角地区不同环流型下强降水模式预报性能评估
Evaluation of Heavy Precipitation Forecast Performance of Numerical Weather Models Under Different Circulation Patterns in the Yangtze River Delta Region
摘要
Abstract
This study classified the weather situations of heavy precipitation events in the Yangtze River Delta Region from September 2022 to September 2024 and evaluated the forecast performance of the nu-merical models CMA-MESO,CMA-GFS,CMA-TYM,CMA-SH9 and the ECMWF model under four main weather types.The research results show that in the 24 h precipitation forecasts,there is a high false alarm rate of forecast for light rain,while torrential rain and above are difficult to accurately forecast,thus the TS score is low.In the 3 h forecasts,the CMA-MESO model performs best for light precipitation.However,under cold shear and low-vortex shear types,heavy precipitation becomes harder to capture,and the model forecast performance weak.In terms of spatial feature evaluation,except the CMA-SH9 model,most models have northern systematic errors in the low-vortex shear and subtropical high with low trough types in the north-south direction,but the situation is the opposite for the typhoon body and periphery type.In the east-west direction,these models generally exhibit an eastern systematic bias in the typhoon body and periphery types,while in other weather types,most models have western systematic er-rors.For the evaluation of temporal characteristics,all the models have the highest accuracy in forecasting the start time of precipitation,followed by the forecast of end time,and the accuracy in forecasting the peak time is relatively low.关键词
检验评估/天气预报/强降水/天气分型/数值模式Key words
verification/weather forecast/heavy precipitation/weather type/numerical model分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
张欣,刘凑华,戴建华,朱佳蓉,储海..长三角地区不同环流型下强降水模式预报性能评估[J].气象,2026,52(5):580-594,15.基金项目
国家自然科学基金气象联合基金项目(U2142214)、中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2024J020)、上海市自然科学基金面上项目(23ZR1463000)和中国气象局复盘总结专项(FPZJ2025-041)共同资助 （U2142214）
