热带作物学报2026，Vol.47Issue(5)：1332-1340,9.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-2561.2026.05.021
百香果低温寒冻害多因子耦合评估模型构建及动态分级
Construction and Dynamic Classification of Multi-factor Coupling Evaluation Model for Low-temperature Freezing Damage of Passi-flora edulis Sims
摘要
Abstract
Passiflora edulis Sims is an important tropical economic crop in southern China.Its growth and development process is closely related to temperature conditions,showing high sensitivity to low-temperature environment.Low-temperature and freezing damage has become a core bottleneck restricting the large-scale development,stable yield,and quality improvement of the industry in southern China.Especially in high-quality P.edulis Sims producing areas such as Zhangzhou,the industry is significantly constrained by low-temperature and freezing damage in winter and spring.However,current research on P.edulis Sims freezing damage mostly relies on single factors,which is difficult to meet the needs of accurate early warning.Therefore,this study aims to construct a scientific and efficient multi-factor coupling evaluation system for P.edulis Sims low-temperature and freezing damage by integrating multi-source data and conducting comprehensive analysis,so as to provide technical support for the sustainable development of the in-dustry.Focusing on Zhangzhou P.edulis Sims as the key research object,the study was carried out based on field ex-periments,climate simulation tests,and historical meteorological disaster data.Comparative analysis was used to de-termine the critical temperature,correlation analysis to screen key disaster-causing factors,principal component analysis to construct the evaluation model,and K-means clustering combined with percentile method to complete dynamic grad-ing.The daily minimum temperature of 2.5℃was determined as the critical temperature for P.edulis Sims low-temp-erature and freezing damage.Four key disaster-causing factors were screened out,among which the extreme minimum temperature was extremely significantly negatively correlated with the freezing damage grade,while the harmful accu-mulated cold during the process,low-temperature duration,and cooling range were extremely significantly positively correlated with the freezing damage grade.A multi-factor coupling evaluation model for P.edulis Sims low-temperature and freezing damage was constructed,I=0.083X1+0.992X2-0.082X3+0.043X4.P.edulis Sims freezing damage was di-vided into 5 grades,including none,mild,moderate,severe,and extremely severe.Typical freezing damage events in 4 different regions in 2021 were selected for verification,and the results showed that the consistency between the grading and the actual disaster situation reached 98.7%.This study innovatively breaks through the limitations of traditional single-factor evaluation,clarifies the critical temperature and disaster-causing mechanism of P.edulis Sims freezing damage.Its grading system has high reliability after verification,and the research results can effectively improve the accuracy of freezing damage early warning,provide data basis for the government to formulate disaster prevention de-cisions and farmers to take protective measures,and practically consolidate technical support for the sustainable devel-opment of the P.edulis Sims industry.关键词
百香果/低温寒冻害/多因子耦合/评估模型/动态分级Key words
Passiflora edulis Sims/low-temperature freezing damage/multi-factor coupling/evaluation model/dynamic classification分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
庄文晶,林溪猛,黄声锦,万璐,李丽容,杨凯..百香果低温寒冻害多因子耦合评估模型构建及动态分级[J].热带作物学报,2026,47(5):1332-1340,9.基金项目
中国气象局创新发展专项(No.CXFZ2025J160) （No.CXFZ2025J160）
福建省气象局基层科技专项(No.2023J09) （No.2023J09）
闽西南区域协同发展气象科技专项(No.2025MXN01). （No.2025MXN01）
