人民长江2026，Vol.57Issue(5)：18-27,10.DOI:10.16232/j.cnki.1001-4179.2026.05.003
基于博弈论组合赋权和改进MABAC的洪水风险分析
Flood risk analysis based on game theory combination weighting method and improved MABAC
摘要
Abstract
Accurately assessing the regional flood risk level is of great significance for reducing flood disaster losses.A coupled hydrological and hydrodynamic model was used to simulate river discharge variations under different engineering conditions.A flood risk evaluation index system was then constructed from three dimensions:hazard-bearing body resilience,hazard-bearing body exposure,and flood occurrence probability.A game theory combination weighting method and an improved Multi-Attributive Border Approximation Comparison(MABAC)model were employed to analyze the flood risk level in the Yiluo River Basin under different engineering conditions.The results show that the indicators of maximum discharge of the nearest river system,population density and terrain slope have the greatest influence on flood risk.The flood risk level in the Yiluo River Basin exhibits a spatial pattern of"low in the west and high in the east".Without considering hydraulic engineering conditions,Shangluo City,Sanmenxia City,and Weinan City exhibit low flood risk levels,while Zhengzhou City and Luoyang City are classified as medium-risk areas.However,when accounting for the mitigating effects of water conservancy projects,all cities in the basin show reduced risk levels,with the high-risk area in the eastern region decreasing by approximately 35%.This study demonstrates the importance of incor-porating water conservancy projects' impacts in flood risk assessments,providing a scientific basis for refined and dynamic flood management strategies.关键词
洪水风险/水文水动力耦合模型/博弈论/MABAC模型/伊洛河流域Key words
flood risk/hydrologic and hydrodynamic coupling model/game theory/MABAC model/Yiluo River Basin分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
韩涵,周若琦,张凯泽..基于博弈论组合赋权和改进MABAC的洪水风险分析[J].人民长江,2026,57(5):18-27,10.基金项目
国家重点研发计划项目(2023YFC3206805) （2023YFC3206805）
国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目(42301357) （42301357）
2026年河南省自然科学基金青年项目(262300422495) （262300422495）
2024年河南省哲学社会科学规划项目(2024CJJ151) （2024CJJ151）
