人民长江2026，Vol.57Issue(5)：28-36,47,10.DOI:10.16232/j.cnki.1001-4179.2026.05.004
长江流域高温事件识别中两类阈值方法对比研究
Comparison of two threshold methods for identifying regional high-temperature events in Changjiang River Basin
摘要
Abstract
Against the backdrop of global climate change,the frequent occurrence of extreme high-temperature events has ex-acerbated the water resource supply-demand imbalance in the Changjiang River Basin.To objectively characterize the spatiotem-poral distribution and evolutionary trends of high-temperature events in the Changjiang River Basin,this study utilized daily max-imum temperature data from 735 national meteorological stations within the basin from 1961 to 2022.Regional high-temperature events during the warm season in the upper and middle-lower reaches of the Changjiang River were identified using both abso-lute and relative threshold approaches.A comparative analysis of the applicability and sensitivity of these two approaches was per-formed from multiple perspectives,including occurrence frequency,spatiotemporal distribution,and comprehensive intensity.The results indicate that:① The absolute threshold approach identified 299 and 383 high-temperature events in the upper and mid-dle-lower reaches of the Changjiang River,respectively,whereas the relative threshold approach identified 423 and 410 events.The relative threshold approach was more sensitive to high-temperature events in the upper reaches of the Changjiang River.②Events identified by the absolute threshold approach were concentrated in July and August,whereas those identified by the relative threshold approach were more evenly distributed from May to September.The absolute threshold approach was more responsive to periods of extreme high temperature.③ The duration of events identified by the absolute threshold approach ranged from 7.1 to 8.7 days,compared with an average of 5.4 days for events identified by the relative threshold approach.The absolute threshold approach enabled more stable identification of the duration of high-temperature events.④ The consistency rate of typical high-temperature years identified by the two approaches reaches 60%.Both approaches indicated that the frequency and intensity of re-gional high-temperature events have exhibited a significantly increasing trend over the past 60 years.The extremity of high-temperature events has increased notably since the 21st century.The relative threshold approach is more sensitive to climate change,whereas the absolute threshold approach is superior in characterizing high-intensity extreme high-temperature events.The research findings can provide a scientific reference for research and adaptive responses to high-temperature events in river basins.关键词
区域性高温事件/相对阈值法/绝对阈值法/长江流域Key words
regional high-temperature event/relative threshold approach/absolute threshold approach/Changjiang River Ba-sin分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
胡一阳,秦鹏程,夏智宏,冯扬,牛自耕,方思达..长江流域高温事件识别中两类阈值方法对比研究[J].人民长江,2026,57(5):28-36,47,10.基金项目
中国气象局创新发展专项项目(CXFZ2023J51) （CXFZ2023J51）
湖北省自然科学基金重点项目(2023AFD098) （2023AFD098）
湖北省自然科学基金创新发展联合基金项目(2022CFD127) （2022CFD127）
