人民长江2026，Vol.57Issue(5)：37-47,11.DOI:10.16232/j.cnki.1001-4179.2026.05.005
金沙江上游径流变化特征及驱动机制分析
Analysis of variation characteristics and driving mechanisms of runoff in upper reaches of Jinsha River
摘要
Abstract
The runoff variation in the upper reaches of the Jinsha River is crucial to water resource management in the Changjiang River Basin.Its long-term changes are influenced by multiple climatic factors;therefore it is necessary to analyze its driving factors and mechanisms.Based on station data,global sea surface temperature(SST)data,and reanalysis data,this study analyzed spatiotemporal characteristics of runoff in the upper Jinsha River,and revealed the driving mechanisms of Pacific and At-lantic SST anomalies on runoff during the key snowmelt period(April to June)and the main flood season(July to September).The results indicate that:① The annual mean runoff in the upper Jinsha River shows a significant fluctuating upward trend.②The primary controlling factors of runoff recharge exhibit significant monthly differences.From April to June,the contribution of seasonal snowmelt to runoff increases significantly,while precipitation becomes the dominant factor controlling runoff variation at the Shigu Station from July to September.③ The effects of SST anomalies on runoff vary by region and season.In March,cold SST anomalies in the equatorial Pacific trigger an anomalous low-pressure system and warm advection over the upper Jinsha River,which significantly enhances precipitation and snowmelt during the snowmelt season,thereby increasing runoff.In June,the North Atlantic Tripole(NAT)SST anomalies modulates the Eurasian teleconnection wave train,thereby intensifying southwesterly mois-ture transport and promoting increased precipitation during the main flood season,ultimately leading to higher runoff.These find-ings provide theoretical support for seasonal runoff prediction in the upper Jinsha River.关键词
径流变化/驱动机制/大气环流/水汽输送/金沙江上游Key words
runoff variation/driving mechanisms/atmospheric circulation/water vapor transport/upper reaches of the Jinsha River分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
张慧,王乐,邱辉,张俊..金沙江上游径流变化特征及驱动机制分析[J].人民长江,2026,57(5):37-47,11.基金项目
中国长江电力股份有限公司三峡金沙江川云水电开发有限公司项目(4323020001) （4323020001）
国家自然科学基金长江水科学研究联合基金项目(U2340205,U2340213) （U2340205,U2340213）
湖北省自然科学基金气象创新发展联合基金重点项目(2023AFD094) （2023AFD094）
中国长江电力股份有限公司技术服务项目(Z242302034) （Z242302034）
