人民长江2026，Vol.57Issue(5)：145-152,8.DOI:10.16232/j.cnki.1001-4179.2026.05.017
考虑蠕变劣化效应的库岸边坡变形机制与预测研究
Study on long-term deformation mechanism and prediction of reservoir bank slopes considering creep deterioration effects
摘要
Abstract
The long-term stability of reservoir bank slopes is a critical issue for reservoir safe operation.Focusing on a reser-voir bank slope at a hydropower station in southwestern China,this study systematically investigates the multi-factor coupled mechanisms governing slope deformation,with particular emphasis on the controlling role of creep deterioration effects.Based on the Nishihara mechanical model and multivariate regression analysis,a prediction method for long-term slope deformation is pro-posed,which comprehensively considers rock mass softening,long-term creep,and effective stress variations.Quantitative predic-tions of future deformation trends are also provided.The results indicate that periodic fluctuations in reservoir water levels,espe-cially during the drawdown phase,are the dominant factor inducing rock deterioration in the fluctuation zone and driving long-term slope deformation.Specifically,the viscoplastic deformation of rock in the fluctuation zone exhibits stepwise growth under cy-clic water-level changes,gradually becoming the primary contributor to cumulative slope displacement.Therefore,controlling and dynamically monitoring the viscoplastic deformation of rock in the water-level fluctuation zone are key measures to ensure the long-term stability of reservoir bank slopes.This study provides references for long-term deformation prediction and stability e-valuation of reservoir bank slopes.关键词
库岸边坡/蠕变劣化效应/库水涨落/西原体力学模型/长期变形/消落带岩体Key words
reservoir bank slope/creep deterioration effects/reservoir water level fluctuation/Nishihara mechanical model/long-term deformation/rock mass in water level fluctuation zone分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
潘少华,路瑞利,蒋舒..考虑蠕变劣化效应的库岸边坡变形机制与预测研究[J].人民长江,2026,57(5):145-152,8.基金项目
长江设计集团自主科研项目(CX2019Z20) （CX2019Z20）
国家自然科学基金项目(5247910) （5247910）
湖北省自然科学基金面上项目(2023AFB887) （2023AFB887）
湖北省住房和城乡建设厅科技项目(2023148) （2023148）
