人民长江2026，Vol.57Issue(5)：174-184,11.DOI:10.16232/j.cnki.1001-4179.2026.05.021
多模型融合的桥梁壅水计算框架构建与验证
Construction and verification of multi-model fusion computational framework for bridge backwater prediction
摘要
Abstract
Single-model bridge backwater calculation methods have reputations of poor error controllability and low computa-tional efficiency when applied to complex terrain.To address these issues,this paper proposes a multi-model fusion computation-al framework based on a task division-feedback-integration architecture.The framework integrates the HEC-RAS one-di-mensional model,the MIKE 21 two-dimensional hydrodynamic model,and three empirical formulas for backwater calculation.A dynamic data assimilation mechanism enables parameter interaction and error suppression among the models.The Bayesian model averaging(BMA)method is introduced to adaptively optimize weights,thereby improving backwater prediction accuracy while maintaining high computational efficiency.Taking six bridges in the Zhuoni section of the Taohe River as a case study,the pro-posed framework was verified under different flood recurrence frequency conditions.The results show that,through comparative a-nalysis of three testing methods,the fusion framework exhibits the smallest error fluctuation range and the highest comprehensive accuracy across various flood frequencies and pier types.The computation time of the fusion framework is only 10.5 minutes,which is more than 30%faster than that of a single numerical simulation.The fusion framework avoids the blindness of empirical formulas and the limitations of single numerical models,providing more reasonable estimates and clearer mechanisms for backwa-ter length prediction.This not only prevents engineering waste caused by overestimation but also mitigates flood control safety haz-ards due to underestimation.When key river channel parameters are disturbed,the fusion framework achieves the lowest maximum relative error and demonstrates good adaptability to heterogeneous pier structures.Overall,the proposed fusion framework offers a high-precision and high-efficiency calculation method for bridge flood control safety assessment,providing technical support for bridge backwater analysis and engineering optimization in complex river environments.关键词
桥梁壅水计算/融合框架/数值模拟/经验公式/洮河Key words
bridge backwater calculation/fusion framework/numerical simulation/empirical formula/Taohe River分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
李溢凯,何文社,马秀兰,何亮亮,王凯..多模型融合的桥梁壅水计算框架构建与验证[J].人民长江,2026,57(5):174-184,11.基金项目
甘肃省自然科学基金项目(23JRRA1468) （23JRRA1468）
