上海预防医学2026，Vol.38Issue(4)：274-279,6.DOI:10.19428/j.cnki.sjpm.2026.250313
2005-2023年云南省保山市斑疹伤寒发病时空聚集特征及流行趋势
Spatiotemporal clustering characteristics and epidemiological trends of typhus fever in Baoshan City,Yunnan Province,2005-2023
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]To analyze the incidence and spatiotemporal distribution of typhus fever in Baoshan City,Yunnan Province from 2005 to 2023,to identify high-risk populations and regions,so as to provide a scientific basis for optimizing the allocation of local prevention and control resources and developing targeted intervention measures.[Methods]Data of typhus fever cases in Baoshan City from 2005 to 2023 were obtained from the Infectious Disease Information Management System of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention.Descriptive epidemiological methods were used to analyze the temporal,spatial and demographic distribution of typhus fever cases.Spatial clustering was assessed using spatial dynamic window scan statistics(circular and elliptical windows),flexible spatial scan statistics,and local spatial autocorrelation methods(including local Moran's I,local Geary's C,and Getis-Ord Gi*).Retrospective spatiotemporal scan statistics were employed to detect spatiotemporal clusters.[Results]A total of 1 099 typhus fever cases were reported in Baoshan City from 2005 to 2023.The incidence rate peaked at 6.31/100 000 in 2007,followed by a decline until reaching its lowest level at 0.21/100 000 in 2015,and subsequently rebounded during 2016-2023.The highest proportion of cases was among children under 10 years of age(31.12%),and the top three occupations of cases were farmers,students,and children,accounting for 88.62%of all cases.Cases occurred predominantly between June and September each year.The incidence was relatively high in Jiucheng Town(62.58/100 000),Yaoguan Town(57.15/100 000),and Dianyang Town(46.81/100 000)of Shidian County.Spatial clustering analyses indicated that high-risk areas were mainly located in the southern part of Baoshan City,showing a south-to-north trend.Spatiotemporal scan analyses identified five clusters,with the most likely cluster centered around Yaoguan Town,covering ten towns(subdistricts)during the period 2007-2010.[Conclusion]The incidence of typhus fever in Baoshan City exhibits a clear seasonal and spatial clustering pattern,with peak incidence occurring in summer and autumn.Spatially,cases are primarily distributed in the southern part of Baoshan City,and high-risk clusters exhibit a south-to-north trend.Farmers,students,and children are the high-risk groups.关键词
斑疹伤寒/时空分布/空间聚集性/流行趋势Key words
typhus fever/spatiotemporal distribution/spatial clustering/epidemic trend分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
卢天任,赵丽娟,段丽忠,何恺,汪娜,江宗奇,张志杰,黄东升..2005-2023年云南省保山市斑疹伤寒发病时空聚集特征及流行趋势[J].上海预防医学,2026,38(4):274-279,6.基金项目
国家自然科学基金(82473736) （82473736）
上海市自然科学基金(24ZR1414700) （24ZR1414700）
