水利学报2026，Vol.57Issue(4)：498-509,12.DOI:10.3724/j.slxb.20250696
干旱防御研究进展与展望
Advances and prospects in drought defense research
摘要
Abstract
Against the backdrop of intensifying climate change,rapid industrialization and urbanization,and the accelerated advancement of national water network construction,drought disasters are exhibiting new characteristics and dynamics,posing growing challenges to traditional drought defense theories and technical systems.This paper systematically reviews the recent advances in drought defense research from 2015 to 2025,covering basic theories,monitoring and assessment,forecasting and prediction,risk assessment,and risk regulation and control.In basic theories,research has evolved from focusing on large-scale ocean-atmosphere teleconnections to local land-atmosphere coupling and feedback processes,from static isolated events to dynamic continuous processes involving drought propagation and cascading processes,and from precipitation-deficit droughts to compound drought mecha-nisms.Regarding the technical systems,monitoring and assessment have progressed toward space-air-ground inte-grated observations and multi-source data fusion,enabling comprehensive diagnosis of both water-cycle states and early responses of drought-affected receptors;forecasting and prediction have shifted from stationarity-based sta-tistical methods to hybrid process-based and data-driven frameworks,with improved skill across subseasonal,sea-sonal,and interannual time scales;the paradigm of risk assessment has moved from static,retrospective evaluations to dynamic,scenario-based simulations tailored to diverse receptors such as agriculture,urban water-supply sys-tems,and ecosystems,with increasing capability to represent risk formation and transmission processes;and risk regulation and control has formed a multi-level comprehensive system encompassing mitigation,adaptation,and risk-sharing,supported by advances in dynamic water-network operation,demand-side management,and financial risk transfer.Furthermore,oriented toward an intelligent framework of forecasting,early warning,scenario rehearsal,and contingency planning,this paper identifies key scientific questions and technical priorities,including coupled natural-human drought evolution,supply-demand outlook forecasting under engineering regulation,receptor-specific early warning,digital-twin-enabled rehearsal,and multi-objective optimized actionable plans.This review provides a scientific basis for enhancing drought resilience and modernizing drought disaster defense.关键词
干旱/监测评估/预测预报/风险评估/风险调控Key words
drought disaster/monitoring and assessment/prediction and forecasting/risk assessment/risk regula-tion and control分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
屈艳萍,姜田亮,吕娟,粟晓玲,张学君,杨晓静..干旱防御研究进展与展望[J].水利学报,2026,57(4):498-509,12.基金项目
国家重点研发计划课题(2023YFC3006604) （2023YFC3006604）
水利技术示范项目(SF-202511) （SF-202511）
中国水利水电科学研究院基本科研业务费专项项目(JZ110145B0112025) （JZ110145B0112025）
国家外国专家个人类项目(JZ210117A0012025) （JZ210117A0012025）
