生物安全学报（中英文）2026，Vol.35Issue(2)：140-149,10.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.2095-1787.20250089
气候变化对马铃薯甲虫全球潜在地理分布的影响
Global potential geographical distribution of Leptinotarsa decemlineata under climate change
摘要
Abstract
[Aim]Global warming affects the geographical distribution patterns of invasive species.The Colorado potato beetle,Lep-tinotarsa decemlineata Say,is a quarantine pest causing substantial economic losses in global agricultural production.Studying its po-tential distribution dynamics under future climate change holds critical implications for the early monitoring,warning,and the devel-opment of control strategies for this pest.[Method]A parameter-optimized MaxEnt model was developed integrating 2 113 global distribution records and 8 key environmental variables to predict the global potential geographic distribution of L.decemlineata under the near-current(1970-2000)and future climate scenarios(SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,and SSP5-8.5)across two periods(2021-2040 and 2041-2060).[Result]The mean temperature of coldest quarter(bio11)and precipitation of driest month(bio14)were identified as the dominant environmental variables shaping the potential distribution of L.decemlineata.Currently,highly suitable habitats are primarily concentrated in North America,Europe,and parts of Asia.Under SSP1-2.6,the potential distribution exhibi-ted a trend of initial increase followed by decrease,while under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5,the trend was initial decrease followed by increase,with the peak occurring during 2021-2040 under SSP5-8.5.[Conclusion]Environmental factors,primarily bio11 and bio14,collectively shape the boundaries of the potential geographic distribution of L.decemlineata.North America,Europe,and parts of Asia,South America,Oceania,and Africa consistently remain highly suitable habitats.Climate change is accelerating the expansion of this insect towards higher latitudes.The findings provide a scientific basis for formulating cross-border quarantine poli-cies and early warning and control strategies against L.decemlineata.关键词
马铃薯甲虫/入侵昆虫/物种分布模型/气候变化/潜在地理分布Key words
Leptinotarsa decemlineata/invasive insect/species distribution model/climate change/potential geographic distribution引用本文复制引用
李鑫,杨鸣,杨程元,帕提玛•乌木尔汗,张毅波,冼晓青,张桂芬..气候变化对马铃薯甲虫全球潜在地理分布的影响[J].生物安全学报（中英文）,2026,35(2):140-149,10.基金项目
国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFD1400200) （2021YFD1400200）
