生物安全学报（中英文）2026，Vol.35Issue(2)：150-160,11.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.2095-1787.20250078
基于MaxEnt的三裂叶豚草在贵州省的潜在地理分布预测
Prediction of potential geographic distribution for Ambrosia trifida in Guizhou Province based on MaxEnt model
摘要
Abstract
[Aim]Ambrosia trifida,an invasive alien plant,exhibits strong ecological adaptability,causing severe damage to agri-culture,forestry,animal husbandry and related industries in China,while posing significant threats to ecosystems and biodiversity.Studying the potential geographic distribution of A.trifida in Guizhou province is crucial for monitoring,early warning,and control of this plant.[Method]The information of 108 domestic occurrence records and 38 environmental and soil variables,as well as the MaxEnt model,ArcGIS software,and Pearson correlation analysis,were employed to predict the potential suitable areas of A.trifida in Guizhou under historical(1970-2000)and future climate scenarios(SSP1-26,SSP2-45,SSP3-70,and SSP5-85).[Result]The AUC value of the MaxEnt model constructed with 19 variables reached 0.945,indicating higher predictive reliability.The pres-ence probability of A.trifida increased with increases in mean diurnal range(b2,2.79-11.56℃),isothermality(b3,15.38-24.16),precipitation of driest month(b14,0-4.83 mm or greater than 16.54 mm),precipitation of coldest quarter(b19,0-16.26 mm),precipitation seasonality(b15,coefficient of variation:11.53-51.06 or 90.28-144.72),and precipitation of warmest quarter(b18,0-83.71 mm or 219.99-418.74 mm).Under historical conditions,the total suitable area of A.trifida in China was 199 910 km2(20.82％of the national territory),with high,medium,and low suitable areas accounting for 0.61％,5.84％,and 14.37％,re-spectively.In Guizhou,the medium suitable areas(15.49％,25 800 km2)concentrated in central-eastern Guiyang City,central-southwestern Qiandongnan Prefecture,and parts bordering Bijie City and Zunyi City.The low suitable area was 71 900 km2,ac-counting for 43.21％.No high suitableareas were identified.Over the four future scenarios and periods,the sum of low and medium suitable areas fluctuated between 48 400 km2 and 86 800 km2.Compared to the current situation,this represented a decline of 11.15％to 50.49％.Unsuitable areas will still dominate,and there will still be no high suitable areas.[Conclusion]Elevation(el),mean diurnal range(b2),isothermality(b3),precipitation of driest month(b14),precipitation of coldest quarter(b19),precipitation seasonality(b15),precipitation of warmest quarter(b18),and soil sulfate content(t_CaSO4)were identified as criti-cal factors influencing the distribution of A.trifida.In Guizhou,58.71％of the area was suitable.Under four future scenarios,medi-um and low suitable areas showed initial expansion followed by contraction toward central and southwestern Guizhou.The contrac-tion/expansion of medium suitable areas was concentrated in Zunyi Ccity,Tongren City,and border between Qiandongnan Prefec-ture and Qiannan Prefecture,while that of low suitable areas occurred in central-western regions(Anshun City,Liupanshui City,and Qianxinan Prefecture).This study provides critical insights for early monitoring,intervention,and control of A.trifida to miti-gate its ecological and economic impacts in Guizhou.关键词
三裂叶豚草/贵州省/适生区预测/最大熵模型Key words
Ambrosia trifida/Guizhou Province/prediction of suitable area/maximum entropy model引用本文复制引用
叶照春,冉海燕,何秀龙,陈仕红,曹珍,金剑雪..基于MaxEnt的三裂叶豚草在贵州省的潜在地理分布预测[J].生物安全学报（中英文）,2026,35(2):150-160,11.基金项目
贵州省科研机构创新能力建设专项资金项目(黔科合服企[2023]011) （黔科合服企[2023]011）
贵州省农业生物安全全省重点实验室项目(黔科合ZSYS[2025]024) （黔科合ZSYS[2025]024）
