现代情报2026，Vol.46Issue(6)：89-102,14.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1008-0821.2026.06.008
大模型智能体驱动的重大突发事件情报决策研究
Research on Intelligence Decision-Making for Major Emergencies Driven by Large Model Agents
摘要
Abstract
[Purpose/Significance]Major emergencies,characterized by high complexity and intertwined derivative risks,pose severe challenges to traditional emergency management systems.Conventional decision-making modes,relying on human expert experience or rule-based systems,have critical pain points:disconnection between intelligence and decision-making,insufficient risk analysis,and poor scheme implementability,failing to process massive multi-source data and generate targeted outputs within a limited time window.To address the academic gaps and practical pain points in intelligence decision-making for major emergencies,this study systematically explores the fundamental theory,process framework,and practical implementation of intelligence decision-making driven by large model agents,so as to provide theoretical and practical support for the intelligent upgrading of emergency risk governance.[Method/Process]Based on the macro intelligence view,taking major emergency risk governance as the entry point and modern decision-making theory as the foundation,this study analyzed the implementation logic of large model agent-driven intelligence decision-making for major emergencies.It constructed a corresponding decision-making framework and established a three-dimensional evalu-ation system featuring traceable evidence,reviewable process,and restrictible expression.Furthermore,taking the Zheng-zhou"July 20"extraordinary rainstorm disaster as an empirical case,an intelligent decision-making agent is built on the Baidu Ernie Agent platform and compared with general large models in a controlled experiment.[Result/Conclusion]The experimental results show that the specialized agent constructed in this study significantly outperforms general large models in evidence binding,process traceability and expression standardization.The decision schemes it generates have stronger scientificity,operability and implementability,which can effectively support the practical needs of major emergency risk governance.This study clarifies the operating mechanism of human-machine collaborative intelligence decision-making in emergency scenarios,and provides a practical path for matching intelligence research with risk governance needs.Future research will expand case coverage and establish quantifiable evaluation indicators to optimize the full-process intelligence decision-making system.关键词
大模型智能体/重大突发事件/情报决策/风险治理/人机协同决策Key words
large model agent/major emergency/intelligence decision-making/risk governance/human-machine collaborative decision-making分类
社会科学引用本文复制引用
张春龙,张海涛,苏欣宇,杨梓鑫..大模型智能体驱动的重大突发事件情报决策研究[J].现代情报,2026,46(6):89-102,14.基金项目
国家社会科学基金重大项目"总体国家安全观下重大突发事件的智能决策情报体系研究"(项目编号:20&ZD125). （项目编号:20&ZD125）
