中国感染控制杂志2026，Vol.25Issue(5)：682-690,9.DOI:10.12138/j.issn.1671-9638.20263169
手术部位感染风险预测模型的构建及其在围术期感染防控中的应用效果研究
Construction of surgical site infection risk prediction model and its appli-cation effect in perioperative infection prevention and control
摘要
Abstract
Objective To explore the application effect of constructing a surgical site infection(SSI)prediction model in perioperative infection prevention and control management in a tertiary general hospital.Methods A two-stage research design was adopted.Stage 1(retrospectively constructing model):50 021 hospitalized patients who underwent surgery from January 2019 to December 2022 were included to establish SSI risk prediction model.Stage 2(prospectively evaluating intervention):49 260 patients who underwent surgery from January to December 2023 were selected as the pre-intervention group,and 56 463 patients who underwent surgery from January to December 2024 were selected as the post-intervention group,effect of perioperative infection control intervention was evaluated.Statistical analysis of SSI relevant indicators before and after intervention was conducted.Results Among 50 021 cases in the modeling group,the incidence of SSI was 0.48%(n=242).Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that surgical duration≥60 minutes,preoperative length of hospital stay≥7 days,incision type(class II,III),ASA grading(class III/IV),and preoperative peripheral white blood cell count>10×109/L were all inde-pendent risk factors for SSI(all P<0.05).The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve(AUC)of this prediction model was 0.783(95%CI:0.712-0.854),and its predictive performance was significantly better than any single variable.After the intervention,the overall SSI incidence and SSI incidence of patients with selective surgery,class III incision,and aged≥60 years were all lower than those before the intervention,differences were all statistically significant(all P<0.05).The qualified rates of preoperative hospitalization days,0.5-1 hours preoperative antimicrobial administration,preoperative hand-washing,intraoperative heat preservation,sterile operation of postoperative dressing change,as well as object surface cleaning and disinfection after intervention were all higher than those before intervention,and the differences were all statistically significant(all P<0.05).Conclusion The application of prediction model can identify high-risk surgical patients early,improve the implementation rate of core infection control measures,and effectively reduce the incidence of SSI.关键词
手术部位感染/预测模型/NNIS评分/logistic回归/围术期防控策略Key words
surgical site infection/prediction model/NNIS score/logistic regression/perioperative prevention and control strategy分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
谭凤玲,李月娟,张蓓,王澍琪,郭哲宁,张明霞,赵奎..手术部位感染风险预测模型的构建及其在围术期感染防控中的应用效果研究[J].中国感染控制杂志,2026,25(5):682-690,9.基金项目
江苏省医院协会医院管理创新研究课题(JSYGY-3-2024-302) （JSYGY-3-2024-302）
苏州大学附属第二医院医院感染管理专项基金(SDFEYGR2263) （SDFEYGR2263）
