中国南方果树2026，Vol.55Issue(2)：14-19,6.DOI:10.13938/j.issn.1007-1431.20250151
四川省柑橘木虱适生区预测:基于MaxEnt模型和GIS技术
Prediction of suitable areas for Diaphorina citri in Sichuan Province based on MaxEnt model and GIS technology
摘要
Abstract
Diaphorina citriis the primary vector insect of citrus Huanglongbing.In recent years,the occurrence range of D.citrihas shown a northward expansion trend both across China as well as within Sichuan Province.Predicting the potential suitable habitats of D.citri under different environmental conditions in Sichuan is of great significance for understanding its response mechanism to environmental change and for improving early warning and control strategies.Based on occurrence records of D.citri in China,including historical distribution records and current occurrence points,and by integrating environ-mental variables such as climatic factors and elevation,an ecological niche model was constructed using the maximum entropy model(MaxEnt),GIS technology,SPSS and other professional software.The key environmental variables affecting the migra-tion and dispersal of D.citri were identified,and its potential suitable areas in Sichuan Province were predicted.The results showed that precipitation of the driest month,minimum temperature of the coldest month,and temperature seasonality were the dominant environmental variables controlling the potential distribution of D.citri,whereas elevation alone had a limited effect on its distribution.The model prediction indicated that the highly suitable area of D.citri in Sichuan Province was approximately 32,900 km2,the moderately suitable area was approximately 53,100 km2,and the lowly suitable area was ap-proximately 70,400 km2.The highly suitable areas were mainly distributed in Neijiang,Ziyang and Suining in eastern Sichuan;Guang'an,Nanchong and Dazhou in northeastern Sichuan;Yibin and Luzhou in southeastern Sichuan;and the Jinsha River Ba-sin and Panzhihua in southwestern Sichuan.Validation based on the ROC curve and AUC value showed that the AUC of the training dataset reached 0.969,indicating the model had high predictive accuracy and reliability.Therefore,targeted monito-ring and control measures against D.citri should be strengthened in the above-mentioned suitable areas,so as to block the in-vasion and spread of citrus Huanglongbing,especially in the Chengdu Plain and northeastern Sichuan,which are core citrus-producing regions of Sichuan Province.关键词
柑橘木虱/MaxEnt模型/GIS技术/适生区/四川省Key words
Diaphorina citri/MaxEnt model/GIS technology/suitable area/Sichuan Province引用本文复制引用
杨阳,陈松,王磊,刘虹伶,陶道波,雷应华,杨超,刘月悦..四川省柑橘木虱适生区预测:基于MaxEnt模型和GIS技术[J].中国南方果树,2026,55(2):14-19,6.基金项目
国家现代农业产业技术体系四川水果创新团队(SCCXTD-2024-4) （SCCXTD-2024-4）
2025年四川省农业科学院科技成果中试熟化与示范转化项目(2025ZSSFFZ09)资助. （2025ZSSFFZ09）
