中国人口·资源与环境2026，Vol.36Issue(4)：11-22,12.DOI:10.12062/cpre.20251017
气候变化的"蝴蝶效应":高温热浪对全球贸易网络的冲击与影响机制
Climate"butterfly effect":impact of heat waves on global trade networks and its mechanisms
摘要
Abstract
Based on data from 163 economies worldwide from 1992 to 2021,this study systematically examined the mechanisms and heterogeneity of the impact of heat waves on global trade networks.By integrating the ERA5-Land and UN Comtrade databases,the study constructed a perceived heat wave index incorporating dry-bulb temperature,relative humidity,and population weights.Com-bined with global trade network indicators,the study empirically examined the pathways through which climate shocks affected trade network structures.The results showed that both short-term extreme heat waves and long-term climate warming significantly reduced the centrality of nodes within global trade networks,which exerted a negative shock on the networks by weakening the core status and connectivity of nodes.Mechanism analysis indicates that heatwaves primarily affect the central position in trade networks by reducing product competitiveness and driving the restructuring of global value chains.Further analysis indicated significant heterogeneity across countries and regions:the trade network centrality of developing countries and the Global South countries was more severely impacted,whereas developed countries and the Global North countries demonstrated stronger adaptive capacity.This disparity exacerbated the"Matthew effect"in global trade and increased trade inequality.This study provides insights into global climate governance and trade policy optimization that can help countries strengthen trade network resilience and mitigate uncertainty risks induced by climate shocks.关键词
极端气候/高温热浪/全球贸易网络/中心度/供应链Key words
extreme climate/heat wave/global trade network/centrality/supply chain分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
宋彩霞,赵秋运,吴立元..气候变化的"蝴蝶效应":高温热浪对全球贸易网络的冲击与影响机制[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2026,36(4):11-22,12.基金项目
山东省自然科学基金青年项目"气候变化下高温热浪对山东海洋产业链韧性的影响及应对策略研究"(批准号:ZR2025QC809) （批准号:ZR2025QC809）
国家自然科学基金青年项目"中国清洁生产环境规制的减污降碳协同效应、机制与路径研究"(批准号:72303239). （批准号:72303239）
