中国人口·资源与环境2026，Vol.36Issue(4)：49-60,12.DOI:10.12062/cpre.20251004
考虑碳边境调节机制的中国高耗能行业脱碳技术与能源需求评估
Assessing decarbonization technologies and energy demand in China's energy-intensive industries under the carbon border adjustment mechanism
摘要
Abstract
China's energy-intensive industries face severe and complex risk challenges under the carbon border adjustment mecha-nism(CBAM),highlighting the need to examine how CBAM affects the choice of decarbonization technologies and changes in energy de-mand within these industries.This study selected four representative energy-intensive industries—steel,aluminum smelting,cement clinker,and synthetic ammonia—utilizing a levelized production cost model,a Logit-based market share model,and an end-use energy decomposition model to simulate the selection of decarbonization technologies and changes in energy demand under CBAM.The study further examined the impacts of three policy tools:differentiated electricity pricing,production layout optimization,and low-carbon tran-sition financing.The results showed that:① At the current carbon price levels of developed economies represented by the EU,indus-tries such as steel and aluminum smelting,which possessed recycled resource circular technologies,exhibited better decarbonization economic viability,while synthetic ammonia and cement clinker industries showed poorer economic performance.② Guiding the relo-cation of energy-intensive industries to northwestern China could effectively enhance decarbonization economic viability,while differen-tiated electricity pricing primarily impacted the electricity-intensive aluminum smelting industry.③ The energy demand structure of en-ergy-intensive industries showed a trend of declining coal demand and increasing primary electricity demand,with steel and aluminum smelting contributing the most to this trend.This study suggests that,in the short term,the response to CBAM should focus on recycled resource circular technologies with high maturity,while in the medium to long term,the deployment of carbon capture and storage(CCS)and green hydrogen technologies should be prioritized to enable deep decarbonization in energy-intensive industries.Policy incentive tools should primarily focus on production layout optimization,supplemented by differentiated electricity pricing designs.The north-western region has natural advantages in renewable energy.Transferring energy-intensive industries to this region in a stepwise manner can leverage the low-carbon resource advantages of the northwest to provide low-cost solutions for industry transformation.Furthermore,energy planning should proactively consider the impact of external climate trade barriers such as CBAM.关键词
碳边境调节机制/高耗能行业/平准化生产成本/脱碳技术/能源需求Key words
carbon border adjustment mechanism/energy-intensive industries/levelized production cost/decarbonization technology/energy demand分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
赵恒松,林伯强..考虑碳边境调节机制的中国高耗能行业脱碳技术与能源需求评估[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2026,36(4):49-60,12.基金项目
国家自然科学基金重点项目"碳中和框架下的能源产业升级、环境污染治理与经济高质量发展"(批准号:72133003) （批准号:72133003）
厦门大学"双一流"文科提升计划建设子项目"能源经济与能源政策协同创新中心". （）
