中国人口·资源与环境2026，Vol.36Issue(4)：86-97,12.DOI:10.12062/cpre.20251201
数实融合能否提高城市遭遇气温冲击时的经济韧性
Can digital-real economy integration enhance urban economic resilience under the temperature shocks?
摘要
Abstract
As the core carriers of macroeconomic operations,cities' levels of economic resilience are not only crucial for regional risk prevention and control effectiveness but also vital for constructing a new development paradigm and promoting high-quality economic development.Digital-real economy integration represents a key initiative driving industrial transformation,providing foundational tech-nological conditions for urban industrial upgrading and economic development.Against the backdrop of the normalization of extreme temperature events,whether digital-real economy integration can effectively enhance urban economic resilience requires thorough inves-tigation.Accordingly,this study utilized annual data of prefecture-level and above cities in China from 2010 to 2022 to calculate the lev-els of temperature shocks,digital-real economy integration,and economic resilience faced by each city.Taking the interaction term of temperature shock and digital-real economy integration as the core explanatory variable and urban economic resilience as the explained variable,this study empirically examined the impact and mechanisms of digital-real economy integration on urban economic resilience under temperature shocks using a fixed effects model.It further analyzed its heterogeneity and threshold effects.The findings indicated that:① Digital-real economy integration helped improve urban economic resilience when facing temperature shocks.This conclusion remained robust after a series of robustness tests and endogeneity treatments.② Mechanism analysis revealed that under temperature shocks,digital-real economy integration could significantly enhance urban economic resilience through talent agglomeration effects,in-dustrial structure rationalization effects,and government digital governance effects.③ Heterogeneity analysis showed that the positive impact of digital-real economy integration when facing temperature shocks was more pronounced for inland cities,large and medium-sized cities,and cities with relatively well-developed digital infrastructure.④ Threshold effect analysis found that when temperature shocks were relatively small,digital-real economy integration could substantially improve urban economic resilience;however,when temperature shocks intensified,although digital-real economy integration could still significantly enhance urban economic resilience,the magnitude of improvement diminished.Therefore,governments should accelerate the process of digital-real economy integration,im-prove its regulatory mechanisms,and fully leverage its positive effects in stabilizing the economy and promoting development,thereby fostering the sustained and steady improvement of urban economic resilience.关键词
气温冲击/数实融合/城市经济韧性Key words
temperature shock/digital-real economy integration/urban economic resilience分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
张德涛,丁俊凯..数实融合能否提高城市遭遇气温冲击时的经济韧性[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2026,36(4):86-97,12.基金项目
国家重点研发计划项目"绿色发展背景下经济系统的动态分析、控制及博弈"(批准号:2023YFA1009200) （批准号:2023YFA1009200）
国家自然科学基金面上项目"绿色发展背景下信用风险量化分析及预警研究"(批准号:12271305) （批准号:12271305）
国家自然科学基金创新研究群体项目"随机控制理论及其应用"(批准号:12521001). （批准号:12521001）
