河北农业大学学报（社会科学版）2026，Vol.28Issue(3)：20-31,12.DOI:10.13320/j.cnki.jauhe.2026.0025
全球生育率加速下降:低生育率陷阱不可避免?
Global Fertility Rates Are Acceleratingly Declining:Is the Low-Fertility Trap Inevitable?
П.А.基舍宁 1А.И.吉尼娜 1Т.А.马克西莫娃 1李丽 2赵万鑫3
作者信息
- 1. 俄罗斯国家研究型高等经济大学,莫斯科 101000
- 2. 东北石油大学 外国语学院,黑龙江 大庆 163318
- 3. 吉林大学东北亚研究中心,吉林 长春 130012||哈尔滨师范大学斯拉夫国家研究中心,黑龙江 哈尔滨 150025
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
Since 2010,global fertility rates have declined universally-and at an accelerating pace-across countries.In populous nations,this decline is primarily attributable to the"new aging wave"and a reduction in fertility intensity.Projections for 2023-2024 by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evalu-ation(IHME),the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis(IIASA),and the United Nations Population Division collectively indicate that the low-fertility trap model is increasingly adopted to char-acterize contemporary global fertility trends.This study focuses on the period total fertility rate(TFR)for 2020-2025.It systematically compares projected and observed TFR estimates from several major interna-tional organizations;critically reviews and contrasts the fertility convergence model with alternative theo-retical and empirical fertility frameworks;and applies the Bongaarts-Feeney method to adjust the period TFR for 2020-2025,thereby correcting for the tempo effect induced by the postponement of childbear-ing.The adjusted results suggest a substantially increasing likelihood that the world is entering a low-fer-tility trap.关键词
生育率/低生育率陷阱/低生育率理论/生育率趋同模型/长期人口预测/IHME数据库Key words
fertility/low-fertility trap/theories of low fertility/models of fertility convergence/long-term demographic projections/IHME database分类
社会科学引用本文复制引用
П.А.基舍宁,А.И.吉尼娜,Т.А.马克西莫娃,李丽,赵万鑫..全球生育率加速下降:低生育率陷阱不可避免?[J].河北农业大学学报（社会科学版）,2026,28(3):20-31,12.
