摘要
Abstract
Aviation safety is a global focus,and as the aviation system becomes increasingly complex,it becomes particularly important to conduct systematic risk analysis.This paper combines the HAZOP(Hazard and Operabili-ty)method with the WSR(Wuli-Shili-Renli)methodology to comprehensively identify critical risk nodes in avia-tion safety.By constructing a complex network model based on real-life case studies,the dynamic transmission pro-cess of risk elements in the aviation network is simulated.The risk grade and transmission probability are deter-mined according to the difference of risks,and the transmission probability among different risks is differentiated based on the risk grade,so as to improve the susceptible-infection-susceptible(SIS)model and quantify the dy-namic characteristics of risk transmission.Finally,through the analysis of 47 aviation cases,taking bird strikes as the scenario,the most likely to cause 10 high-risk nodes and their risk transmission chain are identified.The re-search shows that compared with the traditional SIS model,the risk occurrence probability of the improved SIS model has a wider span,which can more sensitively capture the relative weight difference between different risk points in the transmission process of a specific situation,and provide a reference for effective management of avia-tion safety.关键词
航空安全/风险识别/风险评估/复杂网络/SIS模型Key words
aviation safety/risk identification/risk assessment/complex networks/SIS model分类
航空航天
