摘要
Abstract
Objective:To analyze the risk factors affecting the effectiveness of fluoride varnish in preventing dental caries in children based on LASSO regression and to establish a prediction model.Methods:A retrospective analysis was con-ducted on the data of 278 children who received fluoride varnish for caries prevention in our hospital from March 2020 to May 2024.The children were divided into two groups based on the occurrence of dental caries recorded in the electronic medical record system 12 months after intervention:the occurrence group(n=134)and the non-occurrence group(n=144).Data from both groups were collected and compared for differences.LASSO-Logistic regression was used to analyze factors related to the effectiveness of fluoride varnish in preventing dental caries in children.R software was employed to establish a predic-tion model and evaluate its predictive performance.Results:Among the 278 children,134(48.20%)had dental caries,and 144(51.80%)had no dental caries.There were significant differences in age,frequency of eating at night,frequency of eating sweets,frequency of brushing teeth,time of single brushing teeth,fluoride content in toothpaste,regular oral examination and oral knowledge level of guardians between the occurrence group and the non-occurrence group(P<0.05).The variables se-lected by LASSO regression were included in multivariate Logistic regression analysis.Age(OR=2.108,P=0.017),frequen-cy of eating at night(OR=3.283,P=0.001),frequency of eating sweets(OR=2.207,P=0.002),frequency of brushing teeth(OR=1.673,P=0.034),fluoride content in toothpaste(OR=4.217,P<0.001)and oral knowledge level of guardians(OR=2.995,P<0.001)were all risk factors for the effect of fluoride varnish on preventing dental caries in children.A no-mogram model was established,and the area under the curve(AUC)of the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve was 0.751(95%CI 0.696～0.806).The calibration curve was close to the ideal state,and the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test was χ2=11.634,P=0.618.Conclusion:The risk factors for the effect of fluoride varnish on preventing dental caries in children include age,frequency of eating at night,frequency of eating sweets,frequency of brushing teeth,fluoride content in toothpaste and oral knowledge level of guardians.The nomogram model based on the above six factors has a good predictive value for the effect of fluoride varnish on preventing dental caries.关键词
氟保护漆/龋齿/危险因素/预测模型Key words
Fluoride varnish/Dental caries/Risk factors/Prediction model分类
医药卫生
