南方电网技术2026，Vol.20Issue(5)：37-46,10.DOI:10.13648/j.cnki.issn1674-0629.2026.05.005
基于电力数据的能耗及碳排放测算模型构建与应用
Construction and Application of Energy Consumption and Carbon Emission Calculation Model Based on Power Data
摘要
Abstract
In response to the current practical demand of timely and high-frequency data updates of energy consumption and carbon emissions in relevant government departments and enterprises,based on power data as the core and integrating multiple sources of data,a ridge-multivariable linear regression model for energy consumption calculation is proposed,by comparing and analyzing the performance of various models under various fitting methodologies.Based on this,a model for carbon emission monitoring is proposed.The superposition principle of linear models is applied to achieve the functions of annual data modeling and monthly data prediction,solving the key difficulty of modelling with inconsistent frequency of statistical data and avoiding the errors introduced by traditional data splitting methods at the data source.The application of the ridge regression weighting method solves the multicol-linearity problem of the input data.The proposed model has a wide range of applicability and realizes the functions of monitoring and predicting energy and carbon emissions at different spatial scales such as regions and industries and at different time scales such as an-nual,quarterly and monthly.It has the effect of"solving complexity with simplicity"and fills the gap of high-frequency statistics data in energy and carbon emissions and provides theoretical basis and data support for relevant government departments,industry associa-tions,etc.to monitor energy consumption and carbon emissions and formulate relevant policies.关键词
能源消费/碳排放监测/能耗强度/碳排放强度/岭回归Key words
energy consumption/carbon emission monitoring/energy consumption intensity/carbon emission intensity/ridge regression分类
能源科技引用本文复制引用
王成围,李沛,杨至元,陈政,何耿生,曾金灿,李姚旺,杜尔顺..基于电力数据的能耗及碳排放测算模型构建与应用[J].南方电网技术,2026,20(5):37-46,10.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目(52477103) （52477103）
中国南方电网有限责任公司科技项目(ZBKJXM20232244,ZBKJXM20232245,ZBKJXM20232246). Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(52477103) （ZBKJXM20232244,ZBKJXM20232245,ZBKJXM20232246）
the Science and Technology Project of China Southern Power Grid Co.,Ltd.(ZBKJXM20232244,ZBKJXM20232245,ZBKJXM20232246). （ZBKJXM20232244,ZBKJXM20232245,ZBKJXM20232246）
