南京林业大学学报（自然科学版）2026，Vol.50Issue(3)：90-100,11.DOI:10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202409026
钱江源"山水工程"区生态系统固碳服务供需关系格局变化及其驱动因素
Changes of supply-demand relationship pattern of carbon sequestration services and its driving factors in the Shan-Shui Initiative in the source of Qiantang River in China
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]Enhancing carbon sequestration and sink capacity is a critical pathway for ecosystems to mitigate global warming.Quantifying the supply and demand of ecosystem carbon sequestration services(ECSS)and their spatial relationships,along with identifying the drivers of their dynamics,provides an essential foundation for formulating and optimizing region-specific carbon-neutral solutions based on ecological protection and restoration projects.[Method]This study targeted the Qiantang River source region integrated protection and restoration project of mountains,rivers,forests,farmlands,lakes and grasslands(referred to as the Qiantang River source"Shan-Shui Initiative")in Zhejiang Province.Using quantitative analytical models,we systematically assessed the spatiotemporal patterns,spatial heterogeneity,and driving factors of ECSS supply-demand relationships in the project area.[Result](1)The ECSS supply in the Qiantang River"Shan-Shui Initiative"area exceeded demand.In 2020,the ECSS supply reached 13.72 Mt,reflecting a 9.1％increase compared to 2010,with a spatial distribution characterized by"higher values in central-western regions and lower values in the east".Conversely,the ECSS demand in 2020 was 2.87 Mt,marking a 24.2％rise from 2010.The supply-demand ratio(SDR)of ECSS consistently exhibited a surplus state across most of the study area.(2)The drivers of ECSS supply-demand dynamics displayed significant spatial heterogeneity.GDP per capita,population density,annual mean air temperature,the proportion of secondary industry,and the coverage of urban construction land exerted statistically significant negative effects on the ECSS supply-demand relationship.In contrast,the proportion of forest area demonstrated a pronounced positive effect.[Conclusion]This study elucidates the spatiotemporal evolution and driving mechanisms of ECSS supply-demand patterns in national key ecological function zones under engineered interventions.The findings offer a scientific basis for optimizing the planning and sustainable management of ecosystem carbon sequestration services through the implementation of the"Shan-Shui Initiative."关键词
生态系统固碳服务/供需关系格局/驱动因素/钱塘江源头区域/地理加权回归模型Key words
ecosystem carbon sequestration services/supply-demand relationship pattern/driving factors/Qiantang River source region/geographically weighted regression model分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
徐彩瑶,崔铭烨,许文静,任燕,孔凡斌..钱江源"山水工程"区生态系统固碳服务供需关系格局变化及其驱动因素[J].南京林业大学学报（自然科学版）,2026,50(3):90-100,11.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(42301328,42371294) （42301328,42371294）
国家社会科学基金重大项目(23ZDA105) （23ZDA105）
广东省自然科学基金面上项目(2023A1515010917). （2023A1515010917）
