陕西煤炭2026，Vol.45Issue(7)：137-140,4.DOI:10.20120/j.cnki.issn.1671-749x.2026.0721
基于灰色马尔科夫模型的国内煤矿百万吨死亡率预测研究
Mortality rate prediction of per million tons in China's coal mines based on grey Markov model
摘要
Abstract
The death rate per million tons in coal mines is a key indicator for assessing the safety production level of China's coal mines.Predicting this data provides theoretical support for monitoring coal mine safety.This paper leverages the combined advantages of grey system theory and Markov chains to develop a grey-Markov combination prediction model,which dynamically predicts the death rate per million tons in China's coal mines from 2016 to 2023.The empirical results show that the average relative error of the combined model is lower than that of the traditional grey model,with an improvement in prediction accuracy of 0.003 9%.The study reveals the evolution pattern of coal mine safety levels in China,predicting that the death rate per million tons will decrease by 0.028 by 2025.The model's predictions are close to the actual values,making it effective for preventing and supervising coal mine accidents.关键词
煤矿百万吨死亡率/灰色马尔科夫模型/煤矿安全/预测分析Key words
coal mine mortality rate per million tons/grey Markov model/coal mine safety/prediction analysis分类
矿业与冶金引用本文复制引用
楚世海,张瑞林,周银波,赵双,马豪娟,段朝胜..基于灰色马尔科夫模型的国内煤矿百万吨死亡率预测研究[J].陕西煤炭,2026,45(7):137-140,4.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(52174168) （52174168）
河南省高校科技创新团队计划和创新人才支持计划项目(22IRTSTHN009,24HASTIT019) （22IRTSTHN009,24HASTIT019）
河南省高等学校重点科研项目(23A620004,24A440002) （23A620004,24A440002）
河南省重点研发专项项目241111320700 （）
